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. 2021 Apr 12;14(1):132.
doi: 10.1186/s13104-021-05540-9.

Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

Dipo Aldila  1 , Brenda M Samiadji  2 , Gracia M Simorangkir  2 , Sarbaz H A Khosnaw  3 , Muhammad Shahzad  4
Affiliations

Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

Dipo Aldila et al. BMC Res Notes. .

Abstract

Objective: Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors.

Results: Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta's government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; COVID-19; Contact tracing; Rapid testing; Vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Transmission diagram of COVID-19 model in System 1a and data fitting of quarantined individual in the early spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta (March 03 to May 20, 2020) b
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Effect of vaccine on sensitivity of infection rate to basic reproduction number
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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