Development and validation of the risk engine for an Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis

L Si^{1

2

3}, J A Eisman^{4

5

6}, T Winzenberg⁷, K M Sanders^{8

9}, J R Center^{4

6}, T V Nguyen^{4

6

10}, T Tran⁴, A J Palmer^{11

12}

Affiliations

¹ The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, Australia. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
² Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
³ School of Health Policy & Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
⁴ Bone Biology Division, Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia.
⁵ School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, Australia.
⁶ St Vincent's Hospital, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁷ Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
⁸ Department of Medicine-Western Health, Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁹ School of Health and Social Development, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
¹⁰ School of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
¹¹ Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. Andrew.Palmer@utas.edu.au.
¹² Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Andrew.Palmer@utas.edu.au.

PMID: 33856500
DOI: 10.1007/s00198-021-05955-x

Development and validation of the risk engine for an Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis

L Si et al. Osteoporos Int. 2021 Oct.

. 2021 Oct;32(10):2073-2081.

doi: 10.1007/s00198-021-05955-x. Epub 2021 Apr 15.

Authors

L Si^{1

2

3}, J A Eisman^{4

5

6}, T Winzenberg⁷, K M Sanders^{8

9}, J R Center^{4

6}, T V Nguyen^{4

6

10}, T Tran⁴, A J Palmer^{11

12}

Affiliations

¹ The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, Australia. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
² Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
³ School of Health Policy & Management, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. lsi@georgeinstitute.org.au.
⁴ Bone Biology Division, Garvan Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, Australia.
⁵ School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, Australia.
⁶ St Vincent's Hospital, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
⁷ Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
⁸ Department of Medicine-Western Health, Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
⁹ School of Health and Social Development, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
¹⁰ School of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
¹¹ Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia. Andrew.Palmer@utas.edu.au.
¹² Centre for Health Policy, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Andrew.Palmer@utas.edu.au.

PMID: 33856500
DOI: 10.1007/s00198-021-05955-x

Abstract

The Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO) has shown good face, internal and cross validities, and can be used to assist healthcare decision-making in Australia.

Purpose: This study aimed to document and validate the risk engine of the Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis (AusHEMO).

Methods: AusHEMO is a state-transition microsimulation model. The fracture risks were simulated using fracture incidence rates from the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study. The AusHEMO was validated regarding its face, internal and cross validities. Goodness-of-fit analysis was conducted and Lin's coefficient of agreement and mean absolute difference with 95% limits of agreement were reported.

Results: The development of AusHEMO followed general and osteoporosis-specific health economics guidelines. AusHEMO showed good face validity regarding the model's structure, evidence, problem formulation and results. In addition, the model has been proven good internal and cross validities in goodness-of-fit test. Lin's coefficient was 0.99, 1 and 0.94 for validation against the fracture incidence rates, Australian life expectancies and residual lifetime fracture risks, respectively.

Conclusions: In summary, the development of the risk engine of AusHEMO followed the best practice for osteoporosis disease modelling and the model has been shown to have good face, internal and cross validities. The AusHEMO can be confidently used to predict long-term fracture-related outcomes and health economic evaluations when costs data are included. Health policy-makers in Australia can use the AusHEMO to select which osteoporosis interventions such as medications and public health interventions represent good value for money.

Keywords: Australian; Economic evaluation; Health economics model; Osteoporosis; Osteoporotic fracture.

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References

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Development and validation of the risk engine for an Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis

Affiliations

Development and validation of the risk engine for an Australian Health Economics Model of Osteoporosis

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

References

MeSH terms

Grants and funding

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Other Literature Sources

Medical