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. 2021 Jul;8(7):579-588.
doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(21)00091-2. Epub 2021 Apr 13.

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

Jane Pirkis  1 Ann John  2 Sangsoo Shin  3 Marcos DelPozo-Banos  2 Vikas Arya  4 Pablo Analuisa-Aguilar  5 Louis Appleby  6 Ella Arensman  7 Jason Bantjes  8 Anna Baran  9 Jose M Bertolote  10 Guilherme Borges  11 Petrana Brečić  12 Eric Caine  13 Giulio Castelpietra  14 Shu-Sen Chang  15 David Colchester  16 David Crompton  17 Marko Curkovic  18 Eberhard A Deisenhammer  19 Chengan Du  20 Jeremy Dwyer  21 Annette Erlangsen  22 Jeremy S Faust  23 Sarah Fortune  24 Andrew Garrett  25 Devin George  26 Rebekka Gerstner  27 Renske Gilissen  28 Madelyn Gould  29 Keith Hawton  30 Joseph Kanter  31 Navneet Kapur  32 Murad Khan  33 Olivia J Kirtley  34 Duleeka Knipe  35 Kairi Kolves  17 Stuart Leske  17 Kedar Marahatta  36 Ellenor Mittendorfer-Rutz  37 Nikolay Neznanov  38 Thomas Niederkrotenthaler  39 Emma Nielsen  40 Merete Nordentoft  41 Herwig Oberlerchner  42 Rory C O'Connor  43 Melissa Pearson  44 Michael R Phillips  45 Steve Platt  46 Paul L Plener  47 Georg Psota  48 Ping Qin  49 Daniel Radeloff  50 Christa Rados  51 Andreas Reif  52 Christine Reif-Leonhard  52 Vsevolod Rozanov  53 Christiane Schlang  54 Barbara Schneider  55 Natalia Semenova  56 Mark Sinyor  57 Ellen Townsend  58 Michiko Ueda  59 Lakshmi Vijayakumar  60 Roger T Webb  61 Manjula Weerasinghe  62 Gil Zalsman  63 David Gunnell  64 Matthew J Spittal  3
Affiliations

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

Jane Pirkis et al. Lancet Psychiatry. 2021 Jul.

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that, at their most extreme, these consequences could manifest as increased suicide rates. We aimed to assess the early effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates around the world.

Methods: We sourced real-time suicide data from countries or areas within countries through a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. Between Sept 1 and Nov 1, 2020, we searched the official websites of these countries' ministries of health, police agencies, and government-run statistics agencies or equivalents, using the translated search terms "suicide" and "cause of death", before broadening the search in an attempt to identify data through other public sources. Data were included from a given country or area if they came from an official government source and were available at a monthly level from at least Jan 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020. Our internet searches were restricted to countries with more than 3 million residents for pragmatic reasons, but we relaxed this rule for countries identified through the literature and our networks. Areas within countries could also be included with populations of less than 3 million. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides before COVID-19 (from at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) in each country or area within a country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic (from April 1 to July 31, 2020, in the primary analysis).

Findings: We sourced data from 21 countries (16 high-income and five upper-middle-income countries), including whole-country data in ten countries and data for various areas in 11 countries). Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs based on the observed versus expected numbers of suicides showed no evidence of a significant increase in risk of suicide since the pandemic began in any country or area. There was statistical evidence of a decrease in suicide compared with the expected number in 12 countries or areas: New South Wales, Australia (RR 0·81 [95% CI 0·72-0·91]); Alberta, Canada (0·80 [0·68-0·93]); British Columbia, Canada (0·76 [0·66-0·87]); Chile (0·85 [0·78-0·94]); Leipzig, Germany (0·49 [0·32-0·74]); Japan (0·94 [0·91-0·96]); New Zealand (0·79 [0·68-0·91]); South Korea (0·94 [0·92-0·97]); California, USA (0·90 [0·85-0·95]); Illinois (Cook County), USA (0·79 [0·67-0·93]); Texas (four counties), USA (0·82 [0·68-0·98]); and Ecuador (0·74 [0·67-0·82]).

Interpretation: This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels based on the pre-pandemic period. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic effects of the pandemic unfold.

Funding: None.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 periods as defined in the primary analysis and the two sensitivity analyses
Figure 2
Figure 2
Observed and expected numbers of suicides in the COVID-19 period based on trends in pre-COVID-19 period by country or area in the primary analysis The COVID-19 period was defined as April 1 to July 31, 2020, and the pre-COVID-19 period as at least Jan 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020 (with data included from Jan 1, 2016, if available). *Predictor for linear time trend only. †Predictors for linear time trends and seasonality. ‡Predictors for non-linear time trends and seasonality. §Unincorporated territory of the USA.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Observed and expected numbers of suicides in COVID-19 period based on trends in pre-COVID-19 period by country or area in the first sensitivity analysis The COVID-19 period was defined as April 1 to at least July 31, 2020 (with data included up to Oct 31, 2020, if available), and the pre-COVID-19 period as at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020 (with data included from Jan 1, 2016 if available). *Predictor for linear time trend only. †Predictors for linear time trends and seasonality. ‡Predictors for non-linear time trends and seasonality. §Unincorporated territory of the USA.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Observed and expected numbers of suicides in COVID-19 period based on trends in pre-COVID-19 period by country or area in the second sensitivity analysis The COVID-19 period was defined as March 1 to July 31, 2020, and the pre-COVID-19 period as at least Jan 1, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020 (with data included from Jan 1, 2016, if available). *Predictor for linear time trend only. †Predictors for linear time trends and seasonality. ‡Predictors for non-linear time trends and seasonality. §Unincorporated territory of the USA.

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