Bed Surge Capacity in Saudi Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Objectives: To assess the hospital beds and intensive care unit (ICU) beds with a ventilator surge capacity of the health system in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods: This study used relevant data from the National Health Emergency Operation Center to estimate general hospital and ICU bed surge capacity and tipping points under 3 distinct transmission scenarios.

Results: The study results reveal that hospitals in the KSA need to be supplied with additional 4372 hospital beds to care for COVID-19 positive cases if the pandemic continues over a 6 months' period. At the same time, it requires additional 2192 or 1461 hospital beds if the pandemic persists over a 12- or 18-month period, respectively, to manage hospitalized COVID-19 overloads. The health system surge capacity would suffer from a shortage of 1600, 797, and 540 ICU beds under the 3 transmission scenarios to absorb critical and intensive care COVID-19 cases.

Conclusion: Our findings highlight the urgent need for additional hospital and ICU beds in the face of critical COVID-19 cases in KSA. The study recommends further assessment measures to the health system surge capacity to keep the Saudi health system prepared during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: ICU bed; Saudi Arabia; general hospital bed; surge capacity.

Figure 1.

Number of confirmed cases versus number of hospitalized cases (April to September 2020).

Figure 2.

Number of persons that would be required for hospital admission (Ch) and critical care (Ci) assuming that 2% of the population would have COVID-19 symptoms.

Figure 3.

The percentage of available hospital beds would be required if 2% of the population are infected and develop symptoms.

Figure 4.

The percentage of available ICU beds would be required if 2% of the population are infected and develop symptoms.