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. 2021 Mar;22(2):137-141.
doi: 10.5152/TurkThoracJ.2021.20258. Epub 2021 Mar 1.

Excess Mortality During COVID-19 Pandemic in İstanbul

Benan Musellim  1 , Seval Kul  2 , Pınar Ay  3 , Filiz Çağla Uyanusta Küçük  4 , Elif Dağlı  5 , Oya Itil  6 , Hasan Bayram  7
Affiliations

Excess Mortality During COVID-19 Pandemic in İstanbul

Benan Musellim et al. Turk Thorac J. 2021 Mar.

Abstract

Objective: Epidemiological studies have shown that mortality owing to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be under-reported under different conditions. Excess mortality analysis is suggested as a useful tool in estimating the impact of the disease.

Material and methods: Mortality data between January 01 and May 18, 2020, were analyzed to evaluate the excess mortality owing to COVID-19 in Istanbul, the city most affected by the pandemic in Turkey. The average weekly percentage changes in the number of deaths in 4 previous years were compared with those in the year 2020 using excess mortality analysis.

Results: The number of deaths in Istanbul was significantly higher in 2020 (p=0.001), with a 10% weekly increase between the 10th and 15th weeks, which started to decrease until the 20th week. The excess mortality found during the study period was 4,084 deaths, higher than the officially reported COVID-19 mortality.

Conclusion: Our findings demonstrated that mortality owing to COVID-19 could be higher than the official figures reported by health authorities.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest: The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number of cumulative weekly deaths by year in Istanbul, 2016–2020.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Comparison of the weekly case increase rates of 2016 with those of 2020 for the first 20 weeks of the year.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Comparison of the weekly case increase rates of 2017 and with those of 2020 for the first 20 weeks of the year.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Comparison of the weekly case increase rates of 2018 and with those of 2020 for the first 20 weeks of the year.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Comparison of the weekly case increase rates of 2019 and with those of 2020 for the first 20 weeks of the year.
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