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. 2021 May 12;39(20):2731-2735.
doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.04.003. Epub 2021 Apr 6.

Impact of reduced human papillomavirus vaccination coverage rates due to COVID-19 in the United States: A model based analysis

Vincent Daniels  1 , Kunal Saxena  2 , Craig Roberts  3 , Smita Kothari  4 , Shelby Corman  5 , Lixia Yao  6 , Linda Niccolai  7
Affiliations

Impact of reduced human papillomavirus vaccination coverage rates due to COVID-19 in the United States: A model based analysis

Vincent Daniels et al. Vaccine. .

Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly affected utilization of preventative health care, including vaccines. We aimed to assess HPV vaccination rates during the pandemic, and conduct a simulation model-based analysis to estimate the impact of current coverage and future pandemic recovery scenarios on disease outcomes. The model population included females and males of all ages in the US. The model compares pre-COVID vaccine uptake to 3 reduced coverage scenarios with varying recovery speed. Vaccine coverage was obtained from Truven Marketscan™. Substantially reduced coverage between March-August 2020 was observed compared to 2018-2019. The model predicted that 130,853 to 213,926 additional cases of genital warts; 22,503 to 48,157 cases of CIN1; 48,682 to 110,192 cases of CIN2/3; and 2,882 to 6,487 cases of cervical cancer will occur over the next 100 years, compared to status quo. Providers should plan efforts to recover HPV vaccination and minimize potential long-term consequences.

Keywords: 9-valent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine; COVID-19; Cervical cancer; Genital warts; United States.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of Competing Interest Vincent Daniels, Kunal Saxena, Craig Roberts, Lixia Yao, and Smita Kothari are employees of Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA and may own Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA restricted stock units and/or stock options. Shelby Corman is an employee of Pharmerit – an OPEN Health Company, which received consulting fees in conjunction with this work. Linda Niccolai is a Scientific Advisor for Merck and Scientific Advisory Board member for Moderna.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Normalized HPV vaccine coverage factor by month in 2020 in comparison to 2018/2019. In all scenarios, we assume the August factor remains constant through June 2021.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Additional cases of genital warts and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) over 100 years compared to status quo. Scenario 1, Reduced coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic with rapid recovery to baseline coverage by January 2022; Scenario 2, Reduced coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic with slow recovery to baseline coverage by the end of December 2022; Scenario 3, Reduced coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic with partial recovery to 85% of previous years’ coverage by the end of December 2021 and full recovery by 2028.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Status quo incidence (right Y axis) and additional incidence for 3 scenarios (left Y axis) of genital warts (panel A) and cervical cancer (panel B).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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