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. 2021 May 28;372(6545):990-995.
doi: 10.1126/science.abf0874. Epub 2021 Apr 23.

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: Detection by community viral surveillance

Steven Riley  1   2 , Kylie E C Ainslie  3   2 , Oliver Eales  3   2 , Caroline E Walters  3   2 , Haowei Wang  3   2 , Christina Atchison  3 , Claudio Fronterre  4   5 , Peter J Diggle  4   5 , Deborah Ashby  3 , Christl A Donnelly  3   2   6 , Graham Cooke  7   8   9 , Wendy Barclay  7 , Helen Ward  3   8   9 , Ara Darzi  8   9   10 , Paul Elliott  1   8   9   11
Affiliations

Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: Detection by community viral surveillance

Steven Riley et al. Science. .

Abstract

Surveillance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has mainly relied on case reporting, which is biased by health service performance, test availability, and test-seeking behaviors. We report a community-wide national representative surveillance program in England based on self-administered swab results from ~594,000 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of symptoms, between May and the beginning of September 2020. The epidemic declined between May and July 2020 but then increased gradually from mid-August, accelerating into early September 2020 at the start of the second wave. When compared with cases detected through routine surveillance, we report here a longer period of decline and a younger age distribution. Representative community sampling for SARS-CoV-2 can substantially improve situational awareness and feed into the public health response even at low prevalence.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Constant growth rate models fit to REACT-1 data for sequential and individual rounds.
(A) Model fits to REACT-1 data for sequential rounds 1 and 2 (yellow), 2 and 3 (blue), and 3 and 4 (green). Vertical lines show 95% prediction intervals for models. Black points show observations. See Table 1 for R estimates. (B) Models fit to individual rounds only (red). Note that only 585,004 of 596,965 tests had dates available and were included in the analysis (465 out of 473 positives were included).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2. Prevalence of unweighted swab positivity.
Covering four rounds of the REACT-1 study by (A) age, (B) employment type, (C) ethnicity, and (D) region. Vertical bars show 95% confidence intervals. Rounds are differentiated by color.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3. Geospatial patterns.
Estimated prevalence from geospatial model for (A) round 1, (B) round 2, (C) round 3, and (D) round 4. Regions: NE, North East; NW, North West; YH, Yorkshire and the Humber; EM, East Midlands; WM, West Midlands; EE, East of England; L, London; SE, South East; SW, South West.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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