Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Anna-Maria Virkkala^{1

2}, Juha Aalto^{1

3}, Brendan M Rogers², Torbern Tagesson^{4

5}, Claire C Treat⁶, Susan M Natali², Jennifer D Watts², Stefano Potter², Aleksi Lehtonen⁷, Marguerite Mauritz⁸, Edward A G Schuur⁹, John Kochendorfer¹⁰, Donatella Zona^{11

12}, Walter Oechel^{11

13}, Hideki Kobayashi¹⁴, Elyn Humphreys¹⁵, Mathias Goeckede¹⁶, Hiroki Iwata¹⁷, Peter M Lafleur¹⁸, Eugenie S Euskirchen¹⁹, Stef Bokhorst²⁰, Maija Marushchak^{21

22}, Pertti J Martikainen²², Bo Elberling²³, Carolina Voigt^{22

24}, Christina Biasi²², Oliver Sonnentag²⁴, Frans-Jan W Parmentier^{4

25}, Masahito Ueyama²⁶, Gerardo Celis²⁷, Vincent L St Louis²⁸, Craig A Emmerton²⁸, Matthias Peichl²⁹, Jinshu Chi²⁹, Järvi Järveoja²⁹, Mats B Nilsson²⁹, Steven F Oberbauer³⁰, Margaret S Torn³¹, Sang-Jong Park³², Han Dolman³³, Ivan Mammarella³⁴, Namyi Chae³⁵, Rafael Poyatos^{36

37}, Efrén López-Blanco^{38

39}, Torben Røjle Christensen³⁹, Min Jung Kwon^{40

41}, Torsten Sachs⁴², David Holl⁴³, Miska Luoto¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
² Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.
³ Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
⁴ Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
⁵ Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
⁶ Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
⁷ Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
⁸ University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA.
⁹ Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
¹⁰ Atmosperic Turbulence and Diffusion Division of NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
¹¹ San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
¹² University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
¹³ University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
¹⁴ Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokoama, Japan.
¹⁵ Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
¹⁶ Dept. Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Japan.
¹⁸ School of the Environment, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada.
¹⁹ Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
²⁰ Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
²¹ Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland.
²² Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
²³ Center for Permafrost, Department of Geoscience and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
²⁴ Département de géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
²⁵ Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
²⁶ Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Sakai, Japan.
²⁷ Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
²⁸ Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
²⁹ Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden.
³⁰ Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA.
³¹ Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
³² Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
³³ Department of Earth Sciences, Free University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁴ Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
³⁵ Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
³⁶ CREAF, Catalonia, Spain.
³⁷ Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
³⁸ Department of Environment and Minerals, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland.
³⁹ Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
⁴⁰ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
⁴¹ Division of Life Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
⁴² GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
⁴³ Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.

PMID: 33913236
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15659

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Anna-Maria Virkkala et al. Glob Chang Biol. 2021 Sep.

. 2021 Sep;27(17):4040-4059.

doi: 10.1111/gcb.15659. Epub 2021 Jun 10.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
² Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, USA.
³ Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
⁴ Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
⁵ Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark.
⁶ Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
⁷ Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
⁸ University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA.
⁹ Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, USA.
¹⁰ Atmosperic Turbulence and Diffusion Division of NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA.
¹¹ San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA.
¹² University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
¹³ University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
¹⁴ Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokoama, Japan.
¹⁵ Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
¹⁶ Dept. Biogeochemical Signals, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.
¹⁷ Department of Environmental Science, Shinshu University, Matsumoto, Japan.
¹⁸ School of the Environment, Trent University, Peterborough, ON, Canada.
¹⁹ Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, USA.
²⁰ Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
²¹ Department of Biological and Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland.
²² Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland.
²³ Center for Permafrost, Department of Geoscience and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
²⁴ Département de géographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
²⁵ Centre for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
²⁶ Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, Sakai, Japan.
²⁷ Agronomy Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
²⁸ Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
²⁹ Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden.
³⁰ Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA.
³¹ Berkeley Lab and UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
³² Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
³³ Department of Earth Sciences, Free University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
³⁴ Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
³⁵ Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
³⁶ CREAF, Catalonia, Spain.
³⁷ Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.
³⁸ Department of Environment and Minerals, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Nuuk, Greenland.
³⁹ Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Center, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
⁴⁰ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
⁴¹ Division of Life Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Republic of Korea.
⁴² GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany.
⁴³ Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.

PMID: 33913236
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15659

Abstract

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO₂ fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO₂ fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO₂ fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO₂ fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km² ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO₂ sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m^-2 yr^-1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m^-2 yr^-1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO₂ sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Keywords: Arctic; CO2 balance; empirical; greenhouse gas; land; permafrost; remote sensing.

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References

REFERENCES

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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Affiliations

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO₂ fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

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