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. 2021 Apr 12;13(4):276.
doi: 10.3390/toxins13040276.

Quantitative Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Mycotoxins in Cereals: A Review

Cheng Liu  1 , H J Van der Fels-Klerx  1
Affiliations

Quantitative Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Mycotoxins in Cereals: A Review

Cheng Liu et al. Toxins (Basel). .

Abstract

Our climate is projected to change gradually over time. Mycotoxin occurrence in cereal grains is both directly and indirectly related to local weather and to climate changes. Direct routes are via the effects of precipitation, relative humidity, and temperatures on both fungal infection of the grain and mycotoxin formation. Indirect routes are via the effects of the wind dispersal of spores, insect attacks, and shifts in cereal grain phenology. This review aimed to investigate available modeling studies for climate change impacts on mycotoxins in cereal grains, and to identify how they can be used to safeguard food safety with future climate change. Using a systematic review approach, in total, 53 relevant papers from the period of 2005-2020 were retrieved. Only six of them focused on quantitative modeling of climate change impacts on mycotoxins, all in pre-harvest cereal grains. Although regional differences exist, the model results generally show an increase in mycotoxins in a changing climate. The models do not give an indication on how to adapt to climate change impacts. If available models were linked with land use and crop models, scenario analyses could be used for analyzing adaptation strategies to avoid high mycotoxin presence in cereal grains and to safeguard the safety of our feed and food.

Keywords: adaptation; aflatoxins; deoxynivalenol; food safety; food safety management; fusarium toxins; maize; rice; wheat.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Direct and indirect effects of weather on mycotoxins in cereal grains.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Document type of the selected 53 search results related to modeling climate change impacts on mycotoxins in maize and cereals in Scopus (accessed date: 14/12/2020).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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