Region-specific COVID-19 risk scores and nutritional status of a high-risk population based on individual vulnerability assessment in the national survey data

Abstract

Background & aims: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an ongoing pandemic outbreak leading to more than 1 million deaths worldwide as reported in 2020. Several risk assessment tools, including individual vulnerability to COVID-19, have been developed. The present study aimed to characterize a high-risk population using such a tool and examine risk factors and nutritional status in the national survey data and estimate the region-specific population size.

Methods: The study included 17,540 Korean adults who participated in the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). The risk scores for individual vulnerability to COVID-19 were calculated based on age, sex, smoking status, and comorbidities, and a high-risk population was defined as having risk scores ≥11. Nutritional status was compared between the high-risk population and the remaining participants in the KNHANES data. The region-specific population size was estimated using national statistics.

Results: The proportion of the high-risk population was estimated to be 10.5%, which corresponds to approximately 4.6 million adults in South Korea. About 20% of them had inadequate intake of all of vitamins A, B1, B2, B3, and C below the estimated average requirement. The high-risk population showed 1.65 [95% confidence interval: 1.39, 1.96] higher odds of inadequate intake of multiple vitamins than the remaining participants. In the ecological analysis, the region-specific numbers of the high-risk population correlated significantly with the actual numbers of deaths due to COVID-19 (P value = 0.013).

Conclusions: These results suggest that individuals vulnerable to COVID-19, in particular those are living in densely populated regions, should pay particular attention to the protection against this pandemic and have adequate nutritional status, which may support optimal immune function.

Keywords: COVID-19; Death; National survey; Nutritional status; Risk assessment.

Fig. 1

Region-specific estimates of the number of population at high risk of individual vulnerability to COVID-19.

Fig. 2

Ecological correlation between the estimated numbers of the high-risk population and region-specific deaths (reported on October 7, 2020) due to COVID-19.