Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Tamsin L Edwards¹, Sophie Nowicki^{2

3}, Ben Marzeion^{4

5}, Regine Hock^{6

7}, Heiko Goelzer^{8

9

10}, Hélène Seroussi¹¹, Nicolas C Jourdain¹², Donald A Slater^{13

14

15}, Fiona E Turner¹⁶, Christopher J Smith^{17

18}, Christine M McKenna¹⁷, Erika Simon², Ayako Abe-Ouchi¹⁹, Jonathan M Gregory^{20

21}, Eric Larour¹¹, William H Lipscomb²², Antony J Payne²³, Andrew Shepherd²⁴, Cécile Agosta²⁵, Patrick Alexander^{26

27}, Torsten Albrecht²⁸, Brian Anderson²⁹, Xylar Asay-Davis³⁰, Andy Aschwanden⁶, Alice Barthel³⁰, Andrew Bliss³¹, Reinhard Calov²⁸, Christopher Chambers³², Nicolas Champollion^{4

12}, Youngmin Choi^{11

33}, Richard Cullather², Joshua Cuzzone¹¹, Christophe Dumas²⁵, Denis Felikson^{2

34}, Xavier Fettweis³⁵, Koji Fujita³⁶, Benjamin K Galton-Fenzi^{37

38}, Rupert Gladstone³⁹, Nicholas R Golledge²⁹, Ralf Greve^{32

40}, Tore Hattermann^{41

42}, Matthew J Hoffman³⁰, Angelika Humbert^{43

44}, Matthias Huss^{45

46

47}, Philippe Huybrechts⁴⁸, Walter Immerzeel⁴⁹, Thomas Kleiner⁴³, Philip Kraaijenbrink⁴⁹, Sébastien Le Clec'h⁴⁸, Victoria Lee⁵⁰, Gunter R Leguy²², Christopher M Little⁵¹, Daniel P Lowry⁵², Jan-Hendrik Malles^{4

5}, Daniel F Martin⁵³, Fabien Maussion⁵⁴, Mathieu Morlighem³³, James F O'Neill¹⁶, Isabel Nias^{2

55}, Frank Pattyn⁹, Tyler Pelle³³, Stephen F Price³⁰, Aurélien Quiquet²⁵, Valentina Radić⁵⁶, Ronja Reese²⁸, David R Rounce^{6

57}, Martin Rückamp⁴³, Akiko Sakai³⁶, Courtney Shafer⁵³, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel¹¹, Sarah Shannon²³, Robin S Smith²⁰, Fiammetta Straneo¹³, Sainan Sun⁹, Lev Tarasov⁵⁸, Luke D Trusel⁵⁹, Jonas Van Breedam⁴⁸, Roderik van de Wal^{8

49}, Michiel van den Broeke⁸, Ricarda Winkelmann^{28

60}, Harry Zekollari^{9

45

46

61}, Chen Zhao³⁸, Tong Zhang^{30

62}, Thomas Zwinger⁶³

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK. tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk.
² NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
³ Geology Department and RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA.
⁴ Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁵ MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁶ Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA.
⁷ Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁸ Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
⁹ Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
¹⁰ NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.
¹¹ Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
¹² Institut des géosciences de l'environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, Grenoble, France.
¹³ Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁴ School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
¹⁵ School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
¹⁶ Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK.
¹⁷ Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
¹⁸ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
¹⁹ Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
²⁰ National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
²¹ Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
²² Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
²³ School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
²⁴ Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
²⁵ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
²⁶ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
²⁷ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA.
²⁸ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
²⁹ Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
³⁰ Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
³¹ Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
³² Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
³³ Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
³⁴ Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Columbia, MD, USA.
³⁵ Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
³⁶ Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
³⁷ Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia.
³⁸ Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
³⁹ Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland.
⁴⁰ Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
⁴¹ Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway.
⁴² Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University - University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway.
⁴³ Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany.
⁴⁴ Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁴⁵ Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁴⁶ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
⁴⁷ Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
⁴⁸ Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
⁴⁹ Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
⁵⁰ Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
⁵¹ Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA, USA.
⁵² GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand.
⁵³ Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
⁵⁴ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
⁵⁵ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
⁵⁶ Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
⁵⁷ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
⁵⁸ Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, Newfoundland, Canada.
⁵⁹ Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
⁶⁰ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
⁶¹ Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
⁶² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁶³ CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland.

PMID: 33953415
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Free article

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Tamsin L Edwards et al. Nature. 2021 May.

Free article

. 2021 May;593(7857):74-82.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y. Epub 2021 May 5.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK. tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk.
² NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
³ Geology Department and RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA.
⁴ Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁵ MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁶ Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA.
⁷ Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
⁸ Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
⁹ Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
¹⁰ NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.
¹¹ Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
¹² Institut des géosciences de l'environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, Grenoble, France.
¹³ Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA.
¹⁴ School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK.
¹⁵ School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
¹⁶ Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK.
¹⁷ Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
¹⁸ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
¹⁹ Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
²⁰ National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
²¹ Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
²² Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
²³ School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
²⁴ Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
²⁵ Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
²⁶ Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA.
²⁷ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA.
²⁸ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
²⁹ Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
³⁰ Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA.
³¹ Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
³² Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
³³ Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
³⁴ Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Columbia, MD, USA.
³⁵ Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
³⁶ Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
³⁷ Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia.
³⁸ Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
³⁹ Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland.
⁴⁰ Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan.
⁴¹ Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway.
⁴² Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University - University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway.
⁴³ Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany.
⁴⁴ Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
⁴⁵ Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
⁴⁶ Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland.
⁴⁷ Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.
⁴⁸ Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
⁴⁹ Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
⁵⁰ Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
⁵¹ Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, MA, USA.
⁵² GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand.
⁵³ Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
⁵⁴ Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.
⁵⁵ School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
⁵⁶ Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
⁵⁷ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
⁵⁸ Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John's, Newfoundland, Canada.
⁵⁹ Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
⁶⁰ Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
⁶¹ Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
⁶² State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
⁶³ CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland.

PMID: 33953415
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted¹ using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models^2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios⁹ and climate models¹⁰, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios^11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

1. Oppenheimer, M. et al. Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. In IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (eds Pörtner, H.-O. et al.) (IPCC, 2019).
1. Nowicki, S. M. J. et al. Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 4521–4545 (2016). - PubMed - PMC - DOI
1. Nowicki, S. et al. Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models. Cryosphere 14, 2331–2368 (2020). - DOI
1. Hock, R. et al. GlacierMIP – a model intercomparison of global-scale glacier mass-balance models and projections. J. Glaciol. 65, 453–467 (2019). - DOI
1. Marzeion, B. et al. Partitioning the uncertainty of ensemble projections of global glacier mass change. Earth’s Future 8, e2019EF001470 (2020). - DOI

Publication types

Actions
Actions

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources

Save citation to file

Email citation

Add to Collections

Add to My Bibliography

Your saved search

Create a file for external citation management software

Your RSS Feed

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Affiliations

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

References

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources