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. 2021 May 6;16(5):e0250086.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250086. eCollection 2021.

African based researchers' output on models for the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions: A scoping review

Olatunji O Adetokunboh  1   2 , Zinhle E Mthombothi  1 , Emanuel M Dominic  1 , Sylvie Djomba-Njankou  1 , Juliet R C Pulliam  1
Affiliations

African based researchers' output on models for the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions: A scoping review

Olatunji O Adetokunboh et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: Applied epidemiological models are used in predicting future trends of diseases, for the basic understanding of disease and health dynamics, and to improve the measurement of health indicators. Mapping the research outputs of epidemiological modelling studies concerned with transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions in Africa will help to identify the areas with substantial levels of research activities, areas with gaps, and research output trends.

Methods: A scoping review of applied epidemiological models of infectious disease studies that involved first or last authors affiliated to African institutions was conducted. Eligible studies were those concerned with the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and public health interventions. The review was consistent with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) extension for scoping reviews. Four electronic databases were searched for peer-reviewed publications up to the end of April 2020.

Results: Of the 5927 publications identified, 181 met the inclusion criteria. The review identified 143 publications with first authors having an African institutional affiliation (AIA), while 81 had both first and last authors with an AIA. The publication authors were found to be predominantly affiliated with institutions based in South Africa and Kenya. Furthermore, human immunodeficiency virus, malaria, tuberculosis, and Ebola virus disease were found to be the most researched infectious diseases. There has been a gradual increase in research productivity across Africa especially in the last ten years, with several collaborative efforts spread both within and beyond Africa.

Conclusions: Research productivity in applied epidemiological modelling studies of infectious diseases may have increased, but there remains an under-representation of African researchers as leading authors. The study findings indicate a need for the development of research capacity through supporting existing institutions in Africa and promoting research funding that will address local health priorities.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. The screening algorithm used to determine the eligibility of literature for review.
a Dynamic transmission models are mathematical models in which transmission is determined endogenously [17]. b Theoretical models are used to understand transmission dynamics but informing to public health action or policy is not their primary aim [17].
Fig 2
Fig 2. Flow chart illustrating the identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion of literature for the scoping review process.
Fig 3
Fig 3. The number of publications on applied epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases with first and last African institutional affiliated authors by year of publication.
Fig 4
Fig 4. The number of publications with African institutional affiliated first authors by country of affiliation.
Fig 5
Fig 5. The number of publications with African institutional affiliated last authors by country of affiliation.
Fig 6
Fig 6. The number of collaborative publications between African and non-African authors.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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