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Editorial
. 2021 Jun;40(3):100881.
doi: 10.1016/j.accpm.2021.100881. Epub 2021 May 4.

Two waves and a high tide: the COVID-19 epidemic in France

Mircea T Sofonea  1 , Corentin Boennec  2 , Yannis Michalakis  3 , Samuel Alizon  2
Affiliations
Editorial

Two waves and a high tide: the COVID-19 epidemic in France

Mircea T Sofonea et al. Anaesth Crit Care Pain Med. 2021 Jun.
No abstract available

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemiological modeling; France; ICU capacity strain; Non-pharmaceutical interventions.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Timeline of the French COVID-19 epidemic (March 2020–April 2021). The thick blue curve represents the nationwide 7-day rolling average number of COVID-19 patients in ICU. The thin orange curve corresponds to the smoothed 14-day ([3]) shifted mean temporal reproduction R estimated ([9], [19]) on daily nationwide COVID-19 hospitalisations, along with its 95% confidence interval (orange shaded area). The purple dotted horizontal lines shows a key ICU capacity threshold highlighted by health authorities (3000 COVID-19 patients) and the pre-pandemic French ICU capacity, ca. 5000 beds. The dashed orange line represents the R = 1 threshold under which the epidemic is under control. The upper bars indicate epidemiologically relevant periods such as school closures (in green), major curfews (in yellow; *: localised; **: Christmas eve easing) and lockdowns (in orange; ***: localised and partial). Hospital data are from Santé Publique France.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
COVIDSIM projections of the French COVID-19 epidemic following the third lockdown lifting. (A) No lockdown lifting (statu quo, assuming the same contact rate as infered from the 5th to the 29th of April 2021). (B) Transmission increase following the easing of restrictions such that R = 1.04 on average between the 4th of May and the 10th of June, with a contact rate on the 10th of June equal to that of October 2020. (C) Transmission increase following the easing of restrictions such that R = 1.08 on average between the 4th of May and the 10th of June, with a contact rate on the 10th of June greater than that of October 2020 by 10%. Simulated scenarios are based on data available up to the end of April 2021 and included vaccine rollout. The blue and pink shaded areas correspond to the range spanned by 95% of the simulations for respectively COVID-19 ICU patients nationwide and cumulative hospital mortality (nursing homes are excluded from the model for they exhibit distinct spreading patterns). The turquoise triangles and red circles are the rolling 7-day averaged data counterparts. The purple dotted horizontal lines show a key ICU capacity threshold highlighted by health authorities (3000 COVID-19 patients) and the pre-pandemic French ICU capacity, ca. 5000 beds. The orange vertical line represents the day the simulation was performed.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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