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. 2021 May 7;21(1):880.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10912-8.

Climatic modification effects on the association between PM1 and lung cancer incidence in China

Huagui Guo  1 , Xin Li  2 , Weifeng Li  3   4 , Jiansheng Wu  5   6 , Siying Wang  3   4 , Jing Wei  7
Affiliations

Climatic modification effects on the association between PM1 and lung cancer incidence in China

Huagui Guo et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: Nationwide studies that examine climatic modification effects on the association between air pollution and health outcome are limited in developing countries. Moreover, few studies focus on PM1 pollution despite its greater health effect.

Objectives: This study aims to determine the modification effects of climatic factors on the associations between PM1 and the incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females in China.

Methods: We conducted a nationwide analysis in 345 Chinese counties (districts) from 2014 to 2015. Mean air temperature and relative humidity over the study period were used as the proxies of climatic conditions. In terms of the multivariable linear regression model, we examined climatic modification effects in the stratified and combined datasets according to the three-category and binary divisions of climatic factors. Moreover, we performed three sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of climatic modification effects.

Results: We found a stronger association between PM1 and the incidence rate of male lung cancer in counties with high levels of air temperature or relative humidity. If there is a 10 μg/m3 shift in PM1, then the change in male incidence rate relative to its mean was higher by 4.39% (95% CI: 2.19, 6.58%) and 8.37% (95% CI: 5.18, 11.56%) in the middle and high temperature groups than in the low temperature group, respectively. The findings of climatic modification effects were robust in the three sensitivity analyses. No significant modification effect was discovered for female incidence rate.

Conclusions: Male residents in high temperature or humidity counties suffer from a larger effect of PM1 on the incidence rate of lung cancer in China. Future research on air pollution-related health impact assessment should consider the differential air pollution effects across different climatic conditions.

Keywords: Climatic factors; Lung cancer incidence; Modification effects; PM1 pollution.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Spatial distributions of 345 Chinese cancer registries
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Spatial distributions of PM1 and the incidence rates for males and females in 2014 and 2015
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Spatial distributions of air temperature and relative humidity in 2014 and 2015
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Descriptive statistics of PM1 and the incidence rate of male (or female) lung cancer in climatic stratums
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
PM1 effects stratified by the three-category and binary divisions of climatic factors. M and F: male and female, respectively
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Climatic modification effects to the control of smoking factors (three-category and binary divisions were based on the climatic factors of 345 counties/districts). Tem means temperature; Smoke_p means smoking prevalence; Smoke_s means smoking strength
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Climatic modification effects to the control of smoking factors (three-category and binary divisions were based on the climatic factors of the reduced counties/districts). Tem means temperature; Smoke_p means smoking prevalence; Smoke_s means smoking strength
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