Time-Series Analysis of Fentanyl Concentration in the Unregulated Opioid Drug Supply in a Canadian Setting

Abstract

North America has been contending with an unregulated street drug supply in which opioids are often adulterated with illicitly manufactured fentanyl. The unpredictability of composition may result in an increased risk of overdose due to unexpected elevated concentrations of the high-potency drug. Using data from a community-based drug-checking project, we evaluated trends in fentanyl concentration of illicit opioids in the context of an overdose epidemic. Using a quantification model for fentanyl hydrochloride, historical Fourier-transform infrared spectra from opioid drug-checking samples were analyzed to determine fentanyl concentrations. Median monthly fentanyl concentrations were plotted, and polynomial and autoregressive time-series analyses were performed to examine trends over time. A total of 3,621 fentanyl-positive samples were included in the study, spanning November 2017 to December 2019. Monthly median fentanyl concentrations ranged from 4.5% to 10.4%. Time-series analyses indicated that a third-degree polynomial model fit the data well (R2 = 0.639), suggesting a cyclical pattern in median concentration over time. Notably, absolute variance in fentanyl concentration decreased by an average 0.1% per month (P < 0.001). Future research should explore the relationship between fentanyl concentration and overdose to identify potential targeted harm-reduction interventions that can respond to changes in observed fentanyl concentration.

Keywords: drug checking; fentanyl; harm reduction; time-series modeling.