Clinical analysis and a novel risk predictive nomogram for 155 adult patients with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis

Abstract

Recently, more and more attention has been paid on adult hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH), a disease with complicated symptoms and high mortality. In order to analyze the clinical characteristics and prediction risk factors of mortality, we designed a retrospective study with 1-year follow-up and included 155 patients admitted to Tongji Hospital diagnosed as HLH. One hundred seven patients formed the training cohort for nomogram development, and 48 patients formed the validation cohort to confirm the model's performance. All patients' clinical characteristics, laboratory results, medical records, and prognosis were analyzed. Among all the 107 patients in the training cohort, 46 were male and 61 were female, with the median age of 49.0 (IQR 31.0-63.0). The 1-year mortality rate was 43.9% (47/107) and 45.8% (22/48) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. And further multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training cohort showed that male (odds ratio 5.534, 95% CI 1.507-20.318, p = 0.010), altered mental status (11.876, 1.882-74.947, p = 0.008), serum ferritin ≥ 31,381 μg/L (8.273, 1.855-36.883, p = 0.006), and IL-6 ≥ 18.59 pg/mL (19.446, 1.527-247.642, p = 0.022) were independent risk factor of mortality. A nomogram included the four prediction factors mentioned above was also tabled to help clinicians evaluate the probability of poor outcome. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) certify the accuracy and the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. Our research reveals that male, altered mental status, serum ferritin ≥ 31,381 µg/L, and IL-6 ≥ 18.59 pg/mL are four independent predictors for poor prognosis. Doctors should pay more attention to patients with altered mental status, high serum ferritin, and IL-6 level, who have a higher risk of death.

Keywords: Adult; Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis; Nomogram.