Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021;4(1):100163.
doi: 10.1016/j.ssaho.2021.100163. Epub 2021 May 11.

Identifying key indicators of job loss trends during COVID-19 and beyond

Satyaki Roy  1 , Ronojoy Dutta  2 , Preetam Ghosh  3
Affiliations

Identifying key indicators of job loss trends during COVID-19 and beyond

Satyaki Roy et al. Soc Sci Humanit Open. 2021.

Abstract

COVID-19, declared by the World Health Organization as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, has claimed over 2.7 million lives worldwide. In the absence of vaccinations, social distancing and lockdowns emerged as the means to curb infection spread, with the downside of bringing the world economy to a standstill. In this work, we explore the epidemiological, socioeconomic and demographic factors affecting the unemployment rates of United States that may contribute towards policymaking to contain contagion and mortality while balancing the economy in the future. We identify the ethnic groups and job sectors that are affected by the pandemic and demonstrate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), race, age group, lockdown severity and infected count are the key indicators of post-COVID job loss trends.

Keywords: COVID-19; Economy; Job loss; Policymaking; Regression.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

We have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Relationship between GDP and unemployment rate. (a) Time varying evolution of unemployment rate and GDP between 2010 to present, (b) Pearson correlation coefficient between unemployment rate and GDP for all states of USA.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Sectors and Ethnic Groups Affected by Job Losses. (a) Job sectors affected during recession of 2008-09 and COVID, (b) GDP during 2008 and 2020 recession.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Job losses with respect to sector and ethnic groups. (a) Frequency of job sectors in the list of closed businesses across all the states, (b) job loss index of each ethnic group (and job loss index scaled by fraction of total population belonging to that group).
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Difference between predicted and actual unemployment rate in each state in the first two quarters of 2020 showing an overall nationwide increase in job losses.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. KFF Population distribution by race/ethnicity. 2018. https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-raceethnicity/
    1. Adhikari S., Meng S., Wu Y., Mao Y., Ye R., Wang Q., Sun C., Sylvia S., Rozelle S., Raat H., et al. Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (covid-19) during the early outbreak period: A scoping review. Infectious diseases of poverty. 2020;9(1):1–12. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality . 2018. Health care quality: How does your state compare?https://www.ahrq.gov/data/infographics/state-compare-text.html
    1. Avila Y., Harvey B., Lee J., Mervosh S., Matthews A. The New York Times. See how all 50 states are reopening (and closing again) 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronaviru...
    1. Baker S., Bloom N., J Davis S., Terry S. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2020. Covid-induced economic uncertainty. Technical report.

LinkOut - more resources