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. 2021 May 18;8(1):31.
doi: 10.1186/s40779-021-00325-4.

Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

N W A N Y Wijesekara  1 , Nayomi Herath  2 , K A L C Kodituwakku  2 , H D B Herath  2 , Samitha Ginige  3 , Thilanga Ruwanpathirana  3 , Manjula Kariyawasam  3 , Sudath Samaraweera  3 , Anuruddha Herath  4 , Senarupa Jayawardena  4 , Deepa Gamge  3
Affiliations

Predictive modelling for COVID-19 outbreak control: lessons from the navy cluster in Sri Lanka

N W A N Y Wijesekara et al. Mil Med Res. .

Abstract

In response to an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) within a cluster of Navy personnel in Sri Lanka commencing from 22nd April 2020, an aggressive outbreak management program was launched by the Epidemiology Unit of the Ministry of Health. To predict the possible number of cases within the susceptible population under four social distancing scenarios, the COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model for Epidemics (CHIME) was used. With increasing social distancing, the epidemiological curve flattened, and its peak shifted to the right. The observed or actually reported number of cases was above the projected number of cases at the onset; however, subsequently, it fell below all predicted trends. Predictive modelling is a useful tool for the control of outbreaks such as COVID-19 in a closed community.

Keywords: COVID-19; Navy cluster; Outbreak management; Predictive modelling; SIR model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Projected and observed daily cases. The projected daily patients under 0, 25, 50 and 74% social distancing scenarios are shown in blue, green, brown and purple lines respectively. The projected daily patient curve flattens with increasing social distancing scenarios, while the time to the peak prolongs. The red line shows the observed daily cases which continue to be above the projected daily patient lines of all four social distancing scenarios up to 7th May 2020. However, since this date, the red line showing the observed number of cases curve goes below the projected number of cases under four social distancing scenarios considered
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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