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. 2021 May 25;118(21):e2100163118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2100163118.

Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

Susan M Natali  1 , John P Holdren  2 , Brendan M Rogers  3 , Rachael Treharne  3 , Philip B Duffy  3 , Rafe Pomerance  3 , Erin MacDonald  3
Affiliations

Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals

Susan M Natali et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .

Abstract

Rapid Arctic warming has intensified northern wildfires and is thawing carbon-rich permafrost. Carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and Arctic wildfires, which are not fully accounted for in global emissions budgets, will greatly reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that humans can emit to remain below 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The Paris Agreement provides ongoing opportunities to increase ambition to reduce society's greenhouse gas emissions, which will also reduce emissions from thawing permafrost. In December 2020, more than 70 countries announced more ambitious nationally determined contributions as part of their Paris Agreement commitments; however, the carbon budgets that informed these commitments were incomplete, as they do not fully account for Arctic feedbacks. There is an urgent need to incorporate the latest science on carbon emissions from permafrost thaw and northern wildfires into international consideration of how much more aggressively societal emissions must be reduced to address the global climate crisis.

Keywords: Arctic; climate; feedbacks; permafrost; policy.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Abrupt permafrost thaw on the Peel Plateau in Canada. Thawing of ice-rich permafrost can cause abrupt ground collapse, which can further accelerate thaw and amplify permafrost carbon emissions. For scale, the lake length parallel to the headwall of the thaw feature is 150 m. Image credit: Scott Zolkos (photographer).
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Carbon emissions from Arctic permafrost thaw and the impact on global carbon budgets for 2 °C. (A) Cumulative carbon emissions from gradual permafrost thaw (solid line) and abrupt thaw, fire-induced thaw, and other nonlinear processes (dashed line) are expected to increase as temperatures “overshoot” the 2 °C temperature goal. (B) Permafrost emissions (only gradual thaw shown here) will therefore require additional negative emissions to draw temperatures back down to 2 °C. Figure combines modeled data (12) (black points), estimated trend based on these data (red solid line), and conceptual trend added for illustrative purposes (red dashed line).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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