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. 2022 Jan-Feb;28(1):43-49.
doi: 10.1097/PHH.0000000000001376.

The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue

Christopher Dunphy  1 , Gabrielle F Miller, Ketra Rice, Linda Vo, Gregory Sunshine, Russell McCord, Mara Howard-Williams, Fátima Coronado
Affiliations

The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure Orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue

Christopher Dunphy et al. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2022 Jan-Feb.

Abstract

Context: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, states across the United States implemented various strategies to mitigate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19).

Objective: To examine the effect of COVID-19-related state closures on consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, while controlling for changes in COVID-19 incidence and death.

Design: The analysis estimated a difference-in-difference model, utilizing temporal and geographic variation in state closure orders to analyze their impact on the economy, while controlling for COVID-19 incidence and death.

Participants: State-level data on economic outcomes from the Opportunity Insights data tracker and COVID-19 cases and death data from usafacts.org.

Interventions: The mitigation strategy analyzed within this study was COVID-19-related state closure orders. Data on these orders were obtained from state government Web sites containing executive or administrative orders.

Main outcome measures: Outcomes include state-level estimates of consumer spending, business revenue, and employment levels.

Results: Analyses showed that although state closures led to a decrease in consumer spending, business revenue, and employment, they accounted for only a small portion of the observed decreases in these outcomes over the first wave of COVID-19.

Conclusions: The impact of COVID-19 on economic activity likely reflects a combination of factors, in addition to state closures, such as individuals' perceptions of risk related to COVID-19 incidence, which may play significant roles in impacting economic activity.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

FIGURE
FIGURE
Trends in Consumer Spending, Small Business Revenue, and Employment—United States, February-September 2020—Measured as the Percentage Change From January 2020a a Data are from the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker. Consumer spending is the seasonally adjusted credit/debit card spending relative to January 4–31, 2020, in all merchant category codes (MCC), 7-day moving average. Business revenue is the percent change in net revenue for small businesses, calculated as a 7-day moving average, seasonally adjusted, and indexed to January 4–31, 2020. Employment is employment levels for all workers relative to January 4–31, 2020, from Paychex, Intuit, Earnin, and Kronos.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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