Ten years of Pan-InfORM: modelling research for public health in Canada

Abstract

Modelling and simulation methods can play an important role in guiding public health responses to infectious diseases and emerging health threats by projecting the plausible outcomes of decisions and interventions. The 2003 SARS epidemic marked a new chapter in disease modelling in Canada as it triggered a national discussion on the utility and uptake of modelling research in local and pandemic outbreaks. However, integration and application of model-based outcomes in public health requires knowledge translation and contextualization. We reviewed the history and performance of Pan-InfORM (Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling), which created a national infrastructure in Canada with a mandate to develop innovative knowledge translation methodologies to inform policy makers through modelling frameworks that bridge the gaps between theory, policy, and practice. This review demonstrates the importance of a collaborative infrastructure as a "Community of Practice" to guide public health responses, especially in the context of emerging diseases with substantial uncertainty, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Dedicated resources to modelling and knowledge translation activities can help create synergistic strategies at the global scale and optimize public health responses to protect at-risk populations and quell socioeconomic and health burden.

Keywords: community of practice; disease modelling; emerging infectious diseases; knowledge translation; model-based policy; public health.

Figure 1.. Timelines of Pan-InfORM activities and their outcomes.