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. 2022;31(1):181-195.
doi: 10.1007/s10260-021-00568-4. Epub 2021 May 20.

When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Augusto Cerqua  1 , Roberta Di Stefano  2
Affiliations

When did coronavirus arrive in Europe?

Augusto Cerqua et al. Stat Methods Appt. 2022.

Abstract

The first cluster of coronavirus cases in Europe was officially detected on 21st February 2020 in Northern Italy, even if recent evidence showed sporadic first cases in Europe since the end of 2019. In this study, we have tested the presence of coronavirus in Italy and, even more importantly, we have assessed whether the virus had already spread sooner than 21st February. We use a counterfactual approach and certified daily data on the number of deaths (deaths from any cause, not only related to coronavirus) at the municipality level. Our estimates confirm that coronavirus began spreading in Northern Italy in mid-January.

Keywords: Coronavirus; Counterfactual approach; Europe.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trends and gap in the daily number of cumulative deaths per 10,000 inhabitants: Piacenza and synthetic Piacenza
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Ratio of Post-21st January 2020 RMSPE to Pre-21st January 2020 RMSPE: Piacenza and control municipalities
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Leave-one-out distribution of the synthetic Piacenza
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Trends in number of cumulative deaths per 10,000 inhabitants in Bergamo (121,781 inhabitants), Codogno (15,994 inhabitants), Lodi (46,050 inhabitants) and Nembro (11,514 inhabitants)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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