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. 2021 May 12;13(5):898.
doi: 10.3390/v13050898.

Influence of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.7, Vaccination, and Public Health Measures on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

Chloé Dimeglio  1   2 , Marine Milhes  3 , Jean-Michel Loubes  4 , Noémie Ranger  2 , Jean-Michel Mansuy  2 , Pauline Trémeaux  2 , Nicolas Jeanne  2 , Justine Latour  2 , Florence Nicot  2 , Cécile Donnadieu  3 , Jacques Izopet  1   2
Affiliations

Influence of SARS-CoV-2 Variant B.1.1.7, Vaccination, and Public Health Measures on the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

Chloé Dimeglio et al. Viruses. .

Abstract

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting disease COVID-19 has killed over 2.6 million people as of 18 March 2021. We have used a modified susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) epidemiological model to predict how the spread of the virus in regions of France will vary depending on the proportions of variants and on the public health strategies adopted, including anti-COVID-19 vaccination. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7, which was not detected in early January, increased to become 60% of the forms of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the Toulouse urban area at the beginning of February 2021, but there was no increase in positive nucleic acid tests. Our prediction model indicates that maintaining public health measures and accelerating vaccination are efficient strategies for the sustained control of SARS-CoV-2.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; public health; statistical model; variant B.1.1.7.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The circulating forms of SARS-CoV-2 on Toulouse urban area during January 2021 and early February. (A): week 1 (46 samples), (B): week 2 (141 samples), (C): week 3 (181 samples), (D): week 4 (216 samples), (E): week 5 (110 samples).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Daily spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, 21 July 2020 to 5 September 2021.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Daily spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1 January 2021 to 1 March 2021 depending on the vaccine strategy and the release of public health measures or testing–tracing from 14 February 2021. Black curve: current situation, purple curve: reducing mass testing by half, blue curve: end of mass testing strategy, red curve: no vaccination strategy.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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