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. 2021 May 6;18(9):4946.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph18094946.

Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model

Chanhee Lee  1 , Catherine Apio  1 , Taesung Park  1   2
Affiliations

Estimation of Undetected Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases in South Korea Using a Probabilistic Model

Chanhee Lee et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Increasing evidence shows that many infections of COVID-19 are asymptomatic, becoming a global challenge, since asymptomatic infections have the same infectivity as symptomatic infections. We developed a probabilistic model for estimating the proportion of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 patients in the country. We considered two scenarios: one is conservative and the other is nonconservative. By combining the above two scenarios, we gave an interval estimation of 0.0001-0.0027 and in terms of the population, 5200-139,900 is the number of undetected asymptomatic cases in South Korea as of 2 February 2021. In addition, we provide estimates for total cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Combination of undetected asymptomatic cases and undetected symptomatic cases to the number of confirmed cases (78,844 cases on 2 February 2021) shows that 0.17-0.42% (89,244-218,744) of the population have COVID-19. In conclusion, to control and understand the true ongoing reality of the pandemic, it is of outermost importance to focus on the ratio of undetected asymptomatic cases in the total population.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; asymptomatic; probabilistic model; screening; undetected.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Representing four random variables Disease (D), Symptoms (Sy), Screening (Sc), Test result (T) as a diagram when PPV = 1 and NPV = 1. T is defined in a population where Sc = 1 and D = 1.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Estimation of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in South Korea, 2 February 2021 for two different scenarios.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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