Exploration of the Global Burden of Dementia Attributable to PM2.5: What Do We Know Based on Current Evidence?

Abstract

Exposure to ambient PM_2.5 pollution has been linked to multiple adverse health effects. Additional effects have been identified in the literature and there is a need to understand its potential role in high prevalence diseases. In response to recent indications of PM_2.5 as a risk factor for dementia, we examine the evidence by systematically reviewing the epidemiologic literature, in relation to exposure from ambient air pollution, household air pollution, secondhand smoke, and active smoking. We develop preliminary exposure-response functions, estimate the uncertainty, and discuss sensitivities and model selection. We estimate the likely impact to be 2.1 M (1.4 M, 2.5 M; 5%-95% confidence) global incident dementia cases and 0.6 M (0.4 M, 0.8 M) deaths attributable to ambient PM_2.5 pollution in 2015. This implies a combined toll from morbidity and mortality of dementia of 7.3 M (5.0 M, 9.1 M) lost disability-adjusted life years. China, Japan, India, and the United States had the highest estimated total burden, and the per capita burden was highest in developed countries with large elderly populations. Compared to 2000, most countries in Europe, the Americas, and Southern Africa reduced the burden in 2015, while other regions had a net increase. Based on a recent systematic review of cost of illness studies for dementia, our estimates imply economic costs of US$ 26 billion worldwide in 2015. Based on this estimation, ambient PM_2.5 pollution may be responsible for 15% of premature deaths and 7% of DALYs associated with dementia. Our estimates also indicate substantial uncertainty in this relationship, and future epidemiological studies at high exposure levels are especially needed.

Keywords: air pollution; dementia; exposure; meta‐analysis; particulate matter.

Figure 1

(a) Collected effect sizes from the meta‐analysis for ambient air pollution (AAP) and second‐hand smoke (SHS), where the gray error bars are the 95% confidence intervals in each study, and the black line shows the effect size modeled as in the AAP + SHS C‐F function on the right. (b) Concentration‐response models for AAP‐only, AAP and SHS, and AAP, SHS, and active smoking (AS). Shaded areas show the 95% confidence intervals from the Monte Carlo simulations.

Figure 2

Top 15 world countries with the highest (a) attributable incidence, (b) attributable incidence rate, and (c) attributable dementia deaths in 2015 and the same metrics (d–f) in 2000. Bands show uncertainty range of 95% confidence intervals.

Figure 3

Global map of incidence rate (a), and DALYs (b) attributable to PM_2.5 pollution in 2015, where colors indicate the values. Major countries and those with high values are radiolabeled. In (b), the DALYs for China are much above the color range of other countries, so is annotated with its estimate.