Hesitancy Toward a COVID-19 Vaccine

Abstract

The scientific community has come together in a mass mobilization to combat the public health risks of COVID-19, including efforts to develop a vaccine. However, the success of any vaccine depends on the share of the population that gets vaccinated. We designed a survey experiment in which a nationally representative sample of 3,133 adults in the USA stated their intentions to vaccinate themselves and their children for COVID-19. The factors that we varied across treatments were: the stated severity and infectiousness of COVID-19 and the stated source of the risk information (White House or the Centers for Disease Control). We find that 20% of people in the USA intend to decline the vaccine. We find no statistically significant effect on vaccine intentions from the severity of COVID-19. In contrast, we find that the degree of infectiousness of the coronavirus influences vaccine intentions and that inconsistent risk messages from public health experts and elected officials may reduce vaccine uptake. However, the most important determinants of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy seem to be distrust of the vaccine safety (including uncertainty due to vaccine novelty), as well as general vaccine avoidance, as implied by not having had a flu shot in the last two years.

Fig. 1

Density distributions of perceived probability of infection across treatments

Fig. 2

Mean perceived risk of infection and vaccine uptake across treatments

Fig. 3

The effects of treatments on perceived risk—marginal effects from a zero–one inflated beta regression

Fig. 4

Determinants of decision to vaccinate for COVID-19—average marginal effects from a probit regression

Fig. 5

Reasons for declining the COVID-19 vaccine

Fig. 6

Potential proportions of the population immunized