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. 2021 Jun 9;16(6):e0252373.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252373. eCollection 2021.

Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries

Jude Dzevela Kong  1   2 , Edward W Tekwa  3   4   5 , Sarah A Gignoux-Wolfsohn  6
Affiliations

Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries

Jude Dzevela Kong et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Objective: To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, and environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to the virus.

Methods: We fit logistic growth curves to reported daily case numbers, up to the first epidemic peak, for 58 countries for which 16 explanatory covariates are available. This fitting has been shown to robustly estimate R0 from the specified period. We then use a generalized additive model (GAM) to discern both linear and nonlinear effects, and include 5 random effect covariates to account for potential differences in testing and reporting that can bias the estimated R0.

Findings: We found that the mean R0 is 1.70 (S.D. 0.57), with a range between 1.10 (Ghana) and 3.52 (South Korea). We identified four factors-population between 20-34 years old (youth), population residing in urban agglomerates over 1 million (city), social media use to organize offline action (social media), and GINI income inequality-as having strong relationships with R0, across countries. An intermediate level of youth and GINI inequality are associated with high R0, (n-shape relationships), while high city population and high social media use are associated with high R0. Pollution, temperature, and humidity did not have strong relationships with R0 but were positive.

Conclusion: Countries have different characteristics that predispose them to greater intrinsic vulnerability to COVID-19. Studies that aim to measure the effectiveness of interventions across locations should account for these baseline differences in social and demographic characteristics.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. The COVID-19 daily cases.
Dots represent daily cases averaged over a 7-day window, and curves are fitted based on the logistic growth model. Example countries are arranged from top left to bottom right in order of increasing basic reproduction number (R0).
Fig 2
Fig 2. Estimated basic reproduction numbers (R0) for countries across the globe.
Gray countries are not included in our analysis.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Mixed GAM derived partial effects (smoother plot) of the covariates, on R0.
Circles are partial residuals, and red shades are 95% confidence intervals.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Country profiles.
The four characteristics (youth, city, social media, and GINI inequality) with the lowest p-values in the mixed effect GAM are plotted (centred and standardized) for 8 countries representing, from top left to bottom right in the legend, increasing R0. Red dashed lines represent alternative high R0 profiles based on the mixed effects GAM model.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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