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. 2021 Jun:120 Suppl 1:S46-S56.
doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.015. Epub 2021 May 25.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine for containing the spread of COVID-19: Three illustrations before and after vaccination periods

Ting-Yu Lin  1 , Sih-Han Liao  2 , Chao-Chih Lai  3 , Eugenio Paci  4 , Shao-Yuan Chuang  5
Affiliations

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccine for containing the spread of COVID-19: Three illustrations before and after vaccination periods

Ting-Yu Lin et al. J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 Jun.

Abstract

Background: There are few studies demonstrating how the effectiveness of various extents of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) before and after vaccination periods. The study aimed to demonstrate such an effectiveness in the alteration of the epidemic curves from theory to practice.

Methods: The empirical data on the daily reported COVID-19 cases were extracted from open source. A computer simulation design in conjunction with the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) type model was applied to evaluating confinement measures in Italy with adjustment for underreported cases; isolation and quarantine in Taiwan; and NPIs and vaccination in Israel.

Results: In Italy scenario, the extents of confinement measures were 34% before the end of March and then scaled up to 70% after then. Both figures were reduced to 22-69% after adjusting for underreported cases. Approximately 44% of confinement measures were implemented in the second surge of pandemic in Italy. Fitting the observational data on Taiwan assuming the initial outbreak similar to Wuhan, China, 44% of isolation and quarantine were estimated before March 23rd, 2020. Isolation and quarantine were scaled up to 90% and at least 60% to contain community-acquired outbreaks from March 24th, 2020 onwards. Given 15% monthly vaccination rate from December 2020 in Israel, the effectiveness estimates of reducing the infected toll were 36%, 56%, and 85% for NPIs alone, vaccination alone, and both combined, respectively.

Conclusion: We demonstrated how various NPIs stamp out and delay the epidemic curve of COVID-19. The optimal implementation of these NPIs has to be planned before wide vaccine uptake worldwide.

Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemic; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; SEIR model; Vaccination.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of competing interest The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this article.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Simulated effect of confinement measures of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Italy.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Simulated effect of isolation and quarantine of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Taiwan. (a) Isolation 0, 30, 50, 70, 90% and quarantine 30%, 60%, 90% with isolation 50%. (b) Isolation 0, 30, 50, 70 and 90% and quarantine 30%, 60%, 90% with isolation 70%.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Estimated total number, maximal number of active infectious cases, and duration of outbreak in scenarios with different extent of isolation and quarantine. (a) Estimated total number. (b) Estimated maximal number of active infectious cases. (c) Duration of the outbreak.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Simulated effect of vaccination of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Israel.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Empirical results of confinement measures of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Italy. (a) Cases (b) Death (c) Case fatality (d) Re-estimated cases.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Empirical results of Isolation and quarantine of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Taiwan.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Empirical results of vaccination of COVID-19 epidemic curve in Israel. (a) Epidemic curve. (b) Efficacy.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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