Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

doi:10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.008

. 2021 Jun:120 Suppl 1:S19-S25.

doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.008. Epub 2021 Jun 1.

Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

Mei-Sheng Ku¹, Li-Min Huang², Sherry Yueh-Hsia Chiu³, Wei-Chun Wang⁴, Ya-Chung Jeng⁵, Mu-Yong Yen⁶, Chao-Chih Lai⁷

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
² Department of Pediatrics, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
³ Department of Health Care Management, College of Management, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan and Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
⁴ Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁵ Taipei Medical University, School of Oral Hygiene, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁶ Cheng Hsin General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷ Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Emergency Department of Taipei City Hospital, Ren-Ai Branch, Taiwan. Electronic address: chaochin@ms1.hinet.net.

PMID: 34112588
PMCID: PMC8166523
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.008

Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

Mei-Sheng Ku et al. J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 Jun.

. 2021 Jun:120 Suppl 1:S19-S25.

doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.008. Epub 2021 Jun 1.

Authors

Mei-Sheng Ku¹, Li-Min Huang², Sherry Yueh-Hsia Chiu³, Wei-Chun Wang⁴, Ya-Chung Jeng⁵, Mu-Yong Yen⁶, Chao-Chih Lai⁷

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Science, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
² Department of Pediatrics, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
³ Department of Health Care Management, College of Management, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan and Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
⁴ Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁵ Taipei Medical University, School of Oral Hygiene, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁶ Cheng Hsin General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
⁷ Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Emergency Department of Taipei City Hospital, Ren-Ai Branch, Taiwan. Electronic address: chaochin@ms1.hinet.net.

PMID: 34112588
PMCID: PMC8166523
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.008

Abstract

Background: As COVID-19 has become a pandemic emerging infectious disease it is important to examine whether there was a spatiotemporal clustering phenomenon in the globe during the rapid spread after the first outbreak reported from southern China.

Materials and methods: The open data on the number of COVID-19 cases reported at daily basis form the globe were used to assess the evolution of outbreaks with international air link on the same latitude and also including Taiwan. The dynamic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model was used to evaluate continental transmission from December 2019 to March 2020 before the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic with basic reproductive number and effective reproductive number before and after containment measurements.

Results: For the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China, the estimated reproductive number was reduced from 2.84 during the overwhelming outbreaks in early January to 0.43 after the strict lockdown policy. It is very surprising to find there were three countries (including South Korea, Iran, and Italy) and the Washington state of the USA on the 38° North Latitude involved with large-scale community-acquired outbreaks since the first imported COVID-19 cases from China. The propagation of continental transmission was augmented from hotspot to hotspot with higher reproductive number immediately before the declaration of pandemic. By contrast, there was not any large community-acquired outbreak in Taiwan.

Conclusion: The propagated spatiotemporal transmission from China to other hotspots may explain the emerging pandemic that can only be exempted by timely border control and preparedness of containment measurements according to Taiwan experience.

Keywords: Border control; COVID-19; Containment; Lockdown; Pandemic.

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Figures

**Figure 1**
The continents on the 38° north latitude (Blue line). (a) South Korea (b) Iran (c) Italy (d) the State of Washington, U.S.

**Figure 2**
**Number of confirmed cases by countries or state** (a) China (b) South Korea (c) Iran (d) Italy (e) the State of Washington, U.S. Blue dashed line: border control; red dashed line: peak of conformed cases.

**Figure 3**
The epidemic curves of confirmed cases in Taiwan including (a) Imported COVID-19 cases and (b) domestic COVID-19 cases. Arrow: The major control measure in Taiwan on March 17, 2020.

See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

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[1] Li Q., Guan X., Wu P., Wang X., Zhou L., Tong Y. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199–1207. - PMC - PubMed

[2] Li Q., Guan X., Wu P., Wang X., Zhou L., Tong Y. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1199–1207. - PMC - PubMed

[3] Huang C., Wang Y., Li X., Ren L., Zhao J., Hu Y. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China [published correction appears in Lancet. 2020 Jan 30;:] Lancet. 2020;395:497–506. - PMC - PubMed

[4] Huang C., Wang Y., Li X., Ren L., Zhao J., Hu Y. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China [published correction appears in Lancet. 2020 Jan 30;:] Lancet. 2020;395:497–506. - PMC - PubMed

[5] Zhou P., Yang X.L., Wang X.G., Hu B., Zhang L., Zhang W. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020;579:270–273. - PMC - PubMed

[6] Zhou P., Yang X.L., Wang X.G., Hu B., Zhang L., Zhang W. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020;579:270–273. - PMC - PubMed

[7] Forster P., Forster L., Renfrew C., Forster M. Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117:9241–9243. - PMC - PubMed

[8] Forster P., Forster L., Renfrew C., Forster M. Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117:9241–9243. - PMC - PubMed

[9] Wells C.R., Sah P., Moghadas S.M., Pandey A., Shoukat A., Wang Y. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117:7504–7509. - PMC - PubMed

[10] Wells C.R., Sah P., Moghadas S.M., Pandey A., Shoukat A., Wang Y. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020;117:7504–7509. - PMC - PubMed

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Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

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Continental transmission of emerging COVID-19 on the 38° north latitude

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