Safety improvements by intelligent connected vehicle technologies: A meta-analysis considering market penetration rates

Abstract

As the era of intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) is approaching, a number of studies have investigated the potential benefits of ICVs, including the safety effects. Although previous studies agree that ICVs would significantly improve traffic safety, its quantified safety effects at different stages are still being debated. This study aims to estimate the ICVs' safety effects by market penetration rate (MPR) adopting a meta-analysis approach. The results from the meta-analysis indicate that the number of conflicts is exponentially reduced as the MPR goes up. For example, compared to the environment without ICVs, 4.2% and 17.4% of conflicts would decrease at the MPR of 10% and 50%, respectively. The effects are more obvious at higher MPR-43.4% of conflicts are expected to decrease at the MPR of 90%. From the case study in the United States based on the meta-analysis, it is expected that the MPR would reach 17-20% in the near future (2025) and 40-48% in 2035. The anticipated reduction in the number of fatal crashes would be 5% and 13%, in 2025 and 2035, respectively. The findings from this study will be useful for both public and private sectors to establish strategic plans to promote ICVs and identify their benefits at different MPRs.

Keywords: Automated vehicles; Connected vehicles; Intelligent connected vehicles; Market penetration rate; Meta-analysis; Traffic safety.