Co-mutation modules capture the evolution and transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The rapid spread and huge impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the emerging SARS-CoV-2 have driven large efforts for sequencing and analyzing the viral genomes. Mutation analyses have revealed that the virus keeps mutating and shows a certain degree of genetic diversity, which could result in the alteration of its infectivity and pathogenicity. Therefore, appropriate delineation of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants enables us to understand its evolution and transmission patterns. By focusing on the nucleotides that co-substituted, we first identified 42 co-mutation modules that consist of at least two co-substituted nucleotides during the SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Then based on these co-mutation modules, we classified the SARS-CoV-2 population into 43 groups and further identified the phylogenetic relationships among groups based on the number of inconsistent co-mutation modules, which were validated with phylogenetic trees. Intuitively, we tracked tempo-spatial patterns of the 43 groups, of which 11 groups were geographic-specific. Different epidemic periods showed specific co-circulating groups, where the dominant groups existed and had multiple sub-groups of parallel evolution. Our work enables us to capture the evolution and transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2, which can contribute to guiding the prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. An interactive website for grouping SARS-CoV-2 genomes and visualizing the spatio-temporal distribution of groups is available at https://www.jianglab.tech/cmm-grouping/.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; classification; co-mutation module; evolution and transmission.