Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Sep 22;43(3):e438-e445.
doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab191.

Sociodemographic predictors and transportation patterns of COVID-19 infection and mortality

Renee Pekmezaris  1   2   3   4   5 , Xu Zhu  1   3 , Roland Hentz  4 , Martin L Lesser  1   2   3   4 , Jason J Wang  1   2   3   4 , Matthew Jelavic  6
Affiliations

Sociodemographic predictors and transportation patterns of COVID-19 infection and mortality

Renee Pekmezaris et al. J Public Health (Oxf). .

Abstract

Background: The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-sanctioned prevention strategies have included frequent handwashing with soap and water, covering the mouth and nose with a mask when around others, cleaning and disinfecting maintaining a distance of at least 6 feet from others, etc. Although many of these recommendations are based upon observation and past infection control practices, it is important to combine and explore public data sets to identify predictors of infection, morbidity and mortality to develop more finely honed interventions, based on sociodemographic factors.

Method: Cross-sectional study of both states in the US and counties in NY state.

Results: Population density was found to be significantly associated with state-level coronavirus infection and mortality rate (b = 0.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34, 0.64, P < .0001). States that have lower socioeconomic status, lower mean age and denser populations are associated with higher incidence rates. In regard to NY state, counties with a higher percentage of minority residents had higher COVID-19 mortality rates (b = 2.61, 95% CI: 0.36, 4.87, P = 0.023). Larger population cohorts were associated with lower COVID-19 mortality rates after adjusting for other variables in the model (b = -1.39, 95% CI: -2.07, -0.71, P < 0.001). Population density was not significantly associated with COVID-19 mortality rates after adjustment across counties in the NY state. Public ridership was not indicative of cases or mortality across states in the USA; however, it is a significant factor associated with incidence (but not mortality) in NY counties.

Conclusion: Population density was the only significant predictor of mortality across states in the USA. Lower mean age, lower median household incomes and more densely populated states were at higher risk of COVID-19 infection. Population density was not found to be a significant independent variable compared to minority status and socioeconomic factors in the New York epicenter. Meanwhile, public ridership was found to be a significant factor associated with incidence in New York counties.

Keywords: epidemiology; morbidity and mortality; social determinants.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Themes and variables in SVI.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Wong DWS, Li Y. Spreading of COVID-19: density matters. PLoS One 2020;15(12):e0242398. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Hamidi S, Sabouri S, Ewing R. Does density aggravate the COVID-19 pandemic?: Early findings and lessons for planners. J Am Plann Assoc 2020;86(4):1–15.
    1. Carozzi, F, Provenzano S, Roth S, Urban Density and Covid-19. IZA Discussion Paper, UK, No. 13440. 2020 - PMC - PubMed
    1. APTA . Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Transit Funding Needs, United States, 5 May 2020.
    1. Zhang Y, Fricker JD. Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on non-motorized transportation: A Bayesian structural time series model. Transport Policy 2021;103:11–20ISSN 0967-070X. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.01.013. - DOI

LinkOut - more resources