Does COVID-19 pandemic disrupt sustainable supply chain process? Covering some new global facts

Abstract

The adverse effects of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic are widely visible in the economic structure, while the principal causal factor is the disruption of the supply chain process that leads to the economies into a global depression. The purpose of the study is to identify the critical factors that affect the global sustainable supply chain process in the cross-sectional panel of 38 European countries, 14 North American countries, 40 Asian countries, and a heterogeneous panel of 111 countries. The results show that an increase in susceptible coronavirus cases and death tolls limits the supply chain process because of nationwide closures of industries and business activities. In contrast, an increase in the number of recovered cases supports economic activities and improved logistic performance index across countries. The innovation accounting matrix shows that since August 2020, the global coronavirus cases will decline and start resuming economic activities to increase the supply chain process. The result is further supported by the estimates of reduction in the proportion of death to recovered cases (case fatality ratio 1) to increase sustainable logistics activities. However, the supply chain process could affect an increasing death toll and case fatality ratio 2 (i.e., the proportion of death to registered cases) over time. The global economies should ensure a free flow of sustainable logistics supply, especially the supply of healthcare medical equipment that would help control the coronavirus pandemic, which escapes from the nations from a global depression.

Keywords: COVID-19; Case fatality ratios; Innovation accounting matrix; Regression analysis; Sustainable supply chain process.

Fig. 1

Google Search results (anywhere in the title). Source: Google Search

Fig. 2

Research framework. Source: Authors’ extraction

Fig. 3

Different types of threshold effects. a Step point effect. b Hinge point effect. c Segmented point effect. d Stegmented point effect. Source: Adapted from Fong et al. (2017)

Fig. 4

Recursive coefficients for the overall panel (N=111 countries). Source: Author’s estimates