Modeling spatial determinates of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia; geographically weighted regression

Abstract

Background: In developing countries, 20,000 under 18 children give birth every day. In Ethiopia, teenage pregnancy is high with Afar and Somalia regions having the largest share. Even though teenage pregnancy has bad maternal and child health consequences, to date there is limited evidence on its spatial distribution and driving factors. Therefore, this study is aimed to assess the spatial distribution and spatial determinates of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia.

Methods: A secondary data analysis was conducted using 2016 EDHS data. A total weighted sample of 3381 teenagers was included. The spatial clustering of teenage pregnancy was priorly explored by using hotspot analysis and spatial scanning statistics to indicate geographical risk areas of teenage pregnancy. Besides spatial modeling was conducted by applying Ordinary least squares regression and geographically weighted regression to determine factors explaining the geographic variation of teenage pregnancy.

Result: Based on the findings of exploratory analysis the high-risk areas of teenage pregnancy were observed in the Somali, Afar, Oromia, and Hareri regions. Women with primary education, being in the household with a poorer wealth quintile using none of the contraceptive methods and using traditional contraceptive methods were significant spatial determinates of the spatial variation of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia.

Conclusion: geographic areas where a high proportion of women didn't use any type of contraceptive methods, use traditional contraceptive methods, and from households with poor wealth quintile had increased risk of teenage pregnancy. Whereas, those areas with a higher proportion of women with secondary education had a decreased risk of teenage pregnancy. The detailed maps of hotspots of teenage pregnancy and its predictors had supreme importance to policymakers for the design and implementation of adolescent targeted programs.

Keywords: Ethiopia; Geographic weighted regression; Spatial determinates; Teenage pregnancy.

Fig. 1

Spatial autocorrelation of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia

Fig. 2

Hot spot analysis of teenage pregnancy across regions in Ethiopia (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)

Fig. 3

Spatial scan statistics of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)

Fig. 4

Geographically weighted regression coefficients of contraceptive use to predict teenage pregnancy (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)

Fig. 5

Geographically weighted regression coefficients of traditional contraceptive use to predict the hotspots of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)

Fig. 6

Poor wealth index geographic weighted regression coefficients to predict teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)

Fig. 7

The geographically weighted regression coefficients for women with secondary education to predict the hotspots of teenage pregnancy in Ethiopia (source; shapefile from central statistical agency, Ethiopia, 2013)