Association of Lifetime Earning Potential and Workforce Distribution Among Pediatric Subspecialists

Abstract

Importance: Differences in lifetime earning potential between pediatric subspecialties may contribute to shortages in the subspecialty workforce.

Objectives: To evaluate the association between lifetime earning potential and workforce distribution and to investigate the potential role of a pediatric subspecialist-specific loan repayment program (LRP) in workforce expansion.

Design, setting, and participants: This study was performed on publicly available mean debt and compensation data from national physician surveys from 2018 to 2019 of pediatric subspecialists in academic practice. Linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between lifetime earning potential and measures of workforce distribution in 2019, including distance to subspecialists, percentage of hospital referral regions with a subspecialist, and ratio of subspecialists to the regional child population as well as between lifetime earning potential in 2018 to 2019 and mean subspecialty fellowship fill rates between 2014 and 2018. The association between the change in lifetime earning potential from 2007 to 2018 and the change in workforce distribution metrics from 2003 to 2019 was also examined. The potential role of a pediatric subspecialist-specific LRP was modeled.

Exposures: Lifetime earning potential by subspecialty.

Main outcomes and measures: Measures of workforce distribution and fellowship fill rates.

Results: This study included mean compensation data representing 7539 pediatric subspecialists, workforce distribution data representing 24 375 pediatric subspecialists, and fellowship fill rates representing a mean of 1344 pediatric subspecialty fellows per year. Higher lifetime earning potential was associated with shorter distance to subspecialists (-0.59 miles/$100 000 increase in lifetime earning potential; 95% CI, -1.10 to -0.09), higher percentage of hospital referral regions with a subspecialist (+1.17%/$100 000 increase in lifetime earning potential; 95% CI, 0.34-2.00), and higher ratio of subspecialists to regional child population (+0.11 subspecialists/100 000 children/$100 000 increase in lifetime earning potential; 95% CI, 0.04-0.19). The subspecialties for which lifetime earning potential increased the least between 2007 and 2018 experienced the least growth in the ratio of subspecialists to regional child population from 2003 to 2019 (+0.11 subspecialists/100 000 children/$100 000 increase in lifetime earning potential; 95% CI, 0.07-0.16). Higher lifetime earning potential was associated with higher mean fellowship fill rates (+0.96% spots filled/$100 000 increase in lifetime earning potential; 95% CI, 0.15-1.77). Implementing a pediatric subspecialist-specific LRP could increase fellowship fill rates and improve workforce distribution.

Conclusions and relevance: Lifetime earning potential based on subspecialty may contribute to imbalances in both the current and future pediatric subspecialty workforce. Pediatric subspecialist-specific LRPs, especially for underfilled subspecialties, are potential tools for policy makers to target workforce shortages.

Figure 1.. Association of Workforce Distribution with Lifetime Earning Potential

The association between the net present value of lifetime earnings (lifetime net present value [NPV]) across pediatric subspecialties from 2018 to 2019 and measures of workforce distribution in 2019, including distance to the closest pediatric subspecialist, is displayed. The linear regression line is shown with 95% CI shaded in blue.

Figure 2.. Change in Ratio of Pediatric Subspecialists to Regional Child Population by Lifetime Earning Potential

The association between the absolute change in the net present value of lifetime earnings (lifetime net present value [NPV]) from 2007 to 2018 and the absolute change in the ratio of pediatric subspecialists to the regional child population from 2003 to 2019 is displayed. The linear regression line is shown with 95% CI shaded in blue.

Figure 3.. Association of Pediatric Subspecialty Fellowship Fill Rates and Lifetime Earning Potential

The association between the net present value of lifetime earnings (lifetime net present value [NPV]) across pediatric subspecialties from 2018 to 2019 and mean fellowship fill rates from 2014 to 2018 are displayed. The linear regression line is shown with 95% CI shaded in blue.