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. 2021 Sep-Oct:43:102133.
doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102133. Epub 2021 Jun 26.

Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system

Jenna K Pang  1 , Stephen P Jones  2 , Lindsay L Waite  2 , Nels A Olson  2 , Jason W Armstrong  3 , Robert J Atmur  2 , Joshua J Cummins  2
Affiliations

Probability and estimated risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the air travel system

Jenna K Pang et al. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2021 Sep-Oct.

Abstract

Background: As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger.

Methods: Literature was reviewed from May-September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting.

Results: There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 1:1.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers.

Conclusion: The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.

Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging communicable diseases; Epidemiology; Risk.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors are employees of The Boeing Company.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Seat map of flight with 15 index passengers and one possible secondary case.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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