Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science

Mirta Galesic^{1

2

3

4}, Wändi Bruine de Bruin⁵, Jonas Dalege⁶, Scott L Feld⁷, Frauke Kreuter^{8

9}, Henrik Olsson⁶, Drazen Prelec^{10

11

12}, Daniel L Stein¹³, Tamara van der Does⁶

Affiliations

¹ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA. galesic@santafe.edu.
² Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria. galesic@santafe.edu.
³ Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA. galesic@santafe.edu.
⁴ Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany. galesic@santafe.edu.
⁵ Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of South California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
⁶ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA.
⁷ Department of Sociology, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
⁸ Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, Maryland, MD, USA.
⁹ Ludwig Maximilians Universität München, München, Germany.
¹⁰ Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹¹ Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹² Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹³ Department of Physics and Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA.

PMID: 34194037
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03649-2

Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science

Mirta Galesic et al. Nature. 2021 Jul.

. 2021 Jul;595(7866):214-222.

doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03649-2. Epub 2021 Jun 30.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA. galesic@santafe.edu.
² Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria. galesic@santafe.edu.
³ Vermont Complex Systems Center, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, USA. galesic@santafe.edu.
⁴ Harding Center for Risk Literacy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany. galesic@santafe.edu.
⁵ Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of South California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
⁶ Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA.
⁷ Department of Sociology, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
⁸ Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, Maryland, MD, USA.
⁹ Ludwig Maximilians Universität München, München, Germany.
¹⁰ Sloan School of Management, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹¹ Department of Economics, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹² Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, MIT, Cambridge, MA, USA.
¹³ Department of Physics and Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University, New York, NY, USA.

PMID: 34194037
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03649-2

Abstract

The ability to 'sense' the social environment and thereby to understand the thoughts and actions of others allows humans to fit into their social worlds, communicate and cooperate, and learn from others' experiences. Here we argue that, through the lens of computational social science, this ability can be used to advance research into human sociality. When strategically selected to represent a specific population of interest, human social sensors can help to describe and predict societal trends. In addition, their reports of how they experience their social worlds can help to build models of social dynamics that are constrained by the empirical reality of human social systems.

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References

1. Tomasello, M. Becoming Human: A Theory of Ontogeny (Belknap, 2019).
1. Galesic, M. et al. Asking about social circles improves election predictions. Nat. Hum. Behav. 2, 187–193 (2018). Shows that human social sensing outperformed traditional polling questions in forecasting for the 2016 US and 2017 French elections. - DOI
1. Olsson, H., Bruine de Bruin, W., Galesic, M. & Prelec, D. Election polling is not dead: a Bayesian bootstrap method yields accurate forecasts. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/nqcgs (2021). Developed an information integration method that provided accurate forecasts of the 2018 and 2020 US elections by combining own intentions with human social sensor reports.
1. Bruine de Bruin, W. et al. Asking about social circles improves election predictions even with many political parties. Preprint at https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/8g5ce (2021). Shows that human social sensing outperformed traditional polling questions in forecasting for the 2017 Dutch and 2018 Swedish elections.
1. Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A. M., Galesic, M. & Vardavas, R. Reports of social circles’ and own vaccination behavior: a national longitudinal survey. Health Psychol. 38, 975–983 (2019). Shows that perceived social circle vaccination coverage helps to predict own future vaccination behaviour. - PubMed - DOI

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Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science

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Human social sensing is an untapped resource for computational social science

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