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. 2021 Jun 7;13(11):2838.
doi: 10.3390/cancers13112838.

Trend Shifts in Age-Specific Incidence for In Situ and Invasive Cutaneous Melanoma in Sweden

Hanna Eriksson  1   2 , Kari Nielsen  3   4   5 , Ismini Vassilaki  6 , Jan Lapins  7   8 , Rasmus Mikiver  9   10 , Johan Lyth  11 , Karolin Isaksson  12   13
Affiliations

Trend Shifts in Age-Specific Incidence for In Situ and Invasive Cutaneous Melanoma in Sweden

Hanna Eriksson et al. Cancers (Basel). .

Abstract

Background: The incidence of invasive cutaneous melanoma (CM) is increasing in Sweden. The aim was to present age- and sex-specific trends of the age-standardised incidence and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for in situ and invasive CM.

Methods: Joinpoint regression models were used to analyse data from the Swedish Cancer Register and the Swedish Melanoma Registry 1997-2018 (N = 35,350 in situ CM; 59,932 CM).

Results: The AAPC of CM for women was 4.5 (4.1-5.0; p < 0.001) for the period 1997-2018. For men, the APCC was 4.2 (3.0-5.4; p < 0.001), with a significantly higher annual percentage change (APC) for the period 2000-2018 (5.0; 4.6-5.4; p < 0.001) compared to 1997-1999. An increasing annual incidence of CM ≤ 0.6 mm and 0.7 mm Breslow tumour thickness was found for men with a significant incidence shift for the period 2006-2015, respectively. Similarly for women, with a significantly higher APC for CM ≤ 0.6 mm from 2005. The incidence of intermediate thick CM (2.1-4.0 mm) has not increased since 2011. The incidence of CM > 4.0 mm has been increasing among both sexes, with a significantly lower APC among women from 2005.

Conclusions: The incidence of in situ and low-risk CM ≤ 1.0 mm in tumour thickness has been rising among both sexes since the 2000s.

Keywords: age-specific incidence; average annual percentage change; cutaneous melanoma; joinpoint; trend shifts.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends of age-standardised incidence (logarithmic scale) per 100,000 individuals of cutaneous melanomas (CM) among men and women diagnosed in Sweden, 1997–2018, according to: (a) T-stage; (b) tumour thickness for T1 cutaneous melanoma; (c) age; (d) age for T1 cutaneous melanoma; and (e) age for in situ cutaneous melanoma.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends of age-standardised incidence (logarithmic scale) per 100,000 individuals of cutaneous melanomas (CM) among men and women diagnosed in Sweden, 1997–2018, according to: (a) T-stage; (b) tumour thickness for T1 cutaneous melanoma; (c) age; (d) age for T1 cutaneous melanoma; and (e) age for in situ cutaneous melanoma.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends of age-standardised incidence (logarithmic scale) per 100,000 individuals of cutaneous melanomas (CM) among men and women diagnosed in Sweden, 1997–2018, according to: (a) T-stage; (b) tumour thickness for T1 cutaneous melanoma; (c) age; (d) age for T1 cutaneous melanoma; and (e) age for in situ cutaneous melanoma.
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