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. 2021 Sep;9(9):e1197-e1200.
doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00284-9. Epub 2021 Jul 1.

Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India

Sandip Mandal  1 , Nimalan Arinaminpathy  2 , Balram Bhargava  3 , Samiran Panda  4
Affiliations

Responsive and agile vaccination strategies against COVID-19 in India

Sandip Mandal et al. Lancet Glob Health. 2021 Sep.
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

NA is supported by the UK Medical Research Council and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. SM, BB, and SP are supported by the Indian Council of Medical Research.

Figures

Figure
Figure
Feasibility and effects of rapid-response vaccination strategies (A) Time course of test positivity rate in New Delhi (India), during the first quarter of 2021 (ie, between the first and second epidemic waves in the city). The horizontal, dashed line shows a test positivity rate of 0·5%; this threshold was crossed in early March, 2021, when the second wave was underway, illustrating the potential value of this threshold as a trigger for responsive vaccination. (B) Model projections for mortality during the second wave in a hypothetical district in India, where 25% of the population has previous immunity, with a basic reproduction number of 2, and under three different scenarios: no intervention; accelerated vaccination to cover 75% of the population aged 18 years or older within 1 month of exceeding a test positivity rate of 0·5%; and in addition to accelerated vaccination, implementing district-level non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce transmission by 25%, for the duration of the vaccination campaign. Vertical dashed lines show the duration of interventions (vaccination and NPIs). The model assumes that the vaccine can reduce severe disease and mortality by 60%, but with no effect on acquisition of infection (see the appendix p 11 for alternative assumptions).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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