Model-Based Projection of Dementia Prevalence in China and Worldwide: 2020-2050

Abstract

Background: Current and future incidence and prevalence estimates of dementia are essential for public health planning.

Objective: The objective was to establish prediction model of incidence and estimate the prevalence of dementia in the Chinese and worldwide population from 2020 to 2050.

Methods: A model-based method was used to project the dementia prevalence from 2020 to 2050 in China, which required incidence, the mortality rate for individual without dementia, and the relative risk of death. Furthermore, we detected the impact of intervention on the prevalence projection for dementia using a simulation method. We applied the same method to other projections worldwide.

Results: In 2020, the model predicted 16.25 million (95%confidence interval 11.55-21.18) persons with dementia in China. By 2050, this number would increase by approximately three-fold to 48.98 million (38.02-61.73). Through data simulation, if the incidence of dementia decreased by 10%every 10 years from 2020 after intervention and prevention, the number of dementia cases by 2050 was reduced by 11.96 million. This would reduce the economic burden by US $639.04 billion. In addition, using this model, dementia cases grew relatively slowly over the next few decades in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Japan, with percentage changes of 100.88%, 65.93%, and 16.20%, respectively.

Conclusion: The number of people with dementia in China is large and will continue to increase rapidly. Effective interventions could reduce the number of patients drastically. Therefore, prevention and control strategies must be formulated urgently to reduce the occurrence of dementia.

Keywords: China; dementia; model-based; prevalence; projection.