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. 2022;8(2):2225-2231.
doi: 10.1007/s40808-021-01222-4. Epub 2021 Jun 27.

Statistical study on the impact of different meteorological changes on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and its latitude

Ahmed Hamd  1 , Diaa Elhak Abdulraheem  2 , Aftab Aslam Parwaz Khan  3   4 , Mohamed Shaban  5 , Khalid A Alamry  3 , Abdullah M Asiri  3   4
Affiliations

Statistical study on the impact of different meteorological changes on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and its latitude

Ahmed Hamd et al. Model Earth Syst Environ. 2022.

Abstract

Abstract: More than 1 million illnesses and 70,000 deaths were reported due to novel COVID-19 by the end of the first quarter of 2020. In April 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. The striking resemblance between COVID-19 and its forerunners SARS and MERS, as well as earlier findings on the impact of meteorological conditions on the spread of SARS and MERS, prompted researchers to investigate the relationship between meteorological conditions and the spread of COVID-19. In this work, we statistically studied the effect of different meteorological parameters such as average temperature, humidity, dew point, and wind speed on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt and its latitude (Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey). Our findings revealed that there is a correlation between several meteorological parameters and the spread of COVID-19, but that, contrary to popular belief, the virus does not disappear when the temperature rises. Our theory is that either the virus became active in Egypt and its latitude as the temperature rose, or the humidity became unstable when the temperature rose during the summer season. A log-linear quasi-Poisson regression model was used to estimate the relationship between the studied metrological parameters and the spread of COVID-19. The findings of the study will have ramifications for future control and prevention efforts in Egypt and its latitude.

Keywords: Average dew point; Average humidity; Average temperature; Average wind speed; Covid-19; Metrological factors.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The average temperature in five countries (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The average humidity in five countries (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria)
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The average dew point in five countries (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The average wind speed in five countries (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
a Sum of daily new cases, b sum of daily new deaths in five countries (Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria)
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
A 3D colormap Theme of cumulative cases versus temperature and number of dayes, B cumulative cases in Egypt from model versus WHO data
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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