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. 2021 Jul 15;11(1):14523.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-93932-z.

Predictability of COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality based on model estimations to establish proactive protocols of countermeasures

Göran Svensson  1 , Rocio Rodriguez  2   3 , Carmen Padin  2   4
Affiliations

Predictability of COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality based on model estimations to establish proactive protocols of countermeasures

Göran Svensson et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) has revealed the need for proactive protocols to react and act, imposing preventive and restrictive countermeasures on time in any society. The extent to which confirmed cases can predict the morbidity and mortality in a society remains an unresolved issue. The research objective is therefore to test a generic model's predictability through time, based on percentage of confirmed cases on hospitalized patients, ICU patients and deceased. This study reports the explanatory and predictive ability of COVID-19-related healthcare data, such as whether there is a spread of a contagious and virulent virus in a society, and if so, whether the morbidity and mortality can be estimated in advance in the population. The model estimations stress the implementation of a pandemic strategy containing a proactive protocol entailing what, when, where, who and how countermeasures should be in place when a virulent virus (e.g. SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS) or pandemic strikes next time. Several lessons for the future can be learnt from the reported model estimations. One lesson is that COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in a population is indeed predictable. Another lesson is to have a proactive protocol of countermeasures in place.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Model of COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Linear distributions from March to December 2020 with 1 week time-delays.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Linear distributions from March to December 2020 with 2-week time-delay.
Figure 4
Figure 4
A model estimation and proactive protocol of counter measures.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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