Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2021 Sep;11(3):296-301.
doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.210621.001. Epub 2021 Jun 29.

Global Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: A Resurgence in North America and Europe

Romona D Govender  1 , Muhammad Jawad Hashim  1 , Moien Ab Khan  1 , Halla Mustafa  1 , Gulfaraz Khan  2
Affiliations

Global Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: A Resurgence in North America and Europe

Romona D Govender et al. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

We aimed to assess global trends in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and evaluate progress toward eradication since the inception of the pandemic. Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 update and the UNAIDS Data 2019. The datasets included annual figures from 1990 to 2019 for HIV/AIDS in 204 countries and all world regions. We analyzed rates and trends for prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life years. Analysis of age and gender distribution in different regions was used to assess demographic changes. Forecasting was used to estimate disease burden up to 2040. Although many countries have witnessed a decrease in the incidence, for Russia, Ukraine, Portugal, Brazil, Spain and the United States, the rates of new cases are rising since 2010. This trend is present even in age-standardized analysis, indicating a rise in excess of population growth. Over 0.5% of the world's population is infected. About 5000 new infections occur daily, of which 500 are children. Mortality rates are falling globally; currently at 11 deaths per 100,000 population, forecasted to decrease to 8.5 deaths by 2040. Prevalence continues to increase, with South Africa, Nigeria, Mozambique, India, Kenya and the United States having the highest burden. The total number as well as the rates of new HIV infections are rising every year in Europe, South America, North America and other regions over the last decade. Maternal-to-child transmission continues at high rates despite effective preventive regimens. There is an urgent need to develop programs to curb the rising incidence of HIV.

Keywords: AIDS; HIV; disease burden; epidemiology; incidence; mortality; prevalence.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Epidemiological trends in HIV/AIDS. (A) Rising rates indicating a resurgence in Western Europe and the US*. (B) Falling mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa. *Mean of incidence rates for Portugal, Spain, Italy, Germany and the US. Age-standardized rates were used to adjust for changes in population structure over time.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Rising HIV incidence rates (per 100,000 population) over the last decade in selected countries. (A) Italy. (B) Portugal. (C) Argentina. (D) Spain. (E) United Kingdom. (F) United States.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Geographical distribution of HIV/AIDS in Africa, ages 15–49 years, 2017. Source: IHME, Local Burden of Disease – HIV, 2017.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Age distribution of HIV/AIDS worldwide. (A) Incidence. (B) Prevalence.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Mabaso MLH, Zama TP, Mlangeni L, Mbiza S, Mkhize-Kwitshana ZL. Association between the Human Development Index and millennium development goals 6 indicators in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2014: implications for the New Sustainable Development Goals. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2018;8:77–81. doi: 10.2991/j.jegh.2018.09.001. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Schneider MT, Birger M, Haakenstad A, Singh L, Hamavid H, Chapin A, et al. Tracking development assistance for HIV/AIDS: the international response to a global epidemic. AIDS. 2016;30:1475–9. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001081. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Show KL, Shewade HD, Kyaw KWY, Wai KT, Hone S, Oo HN. HIV testing among general population with sexually transmitted infection: findings from Myanmar demographic and health survey (2015–16) J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2020;10:82–5. doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.191206.002. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Jonas A, Patel SV, Katuta F, Maher AD, Banda KM, Gerndt K, et al. HIV prevalence, risk factors for infection, and uptake of prevention, testing, and treatment among female sex workers in Namibia. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2020;10:351–8. doi: 10.2991/jegh.k.200603.001. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Mashragi F, Bernstein RS, Al-Mazroa M, Al-Tawfiq JA, Filemban S, Assiri A, et al. HIV transmission at a Saudi Arabia hemodialysis unit. Clin Infect Dis. 2014;59:897–902. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu373. - DOI - PMC - PubMed