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. 2021 Jul 11;21(14):4741.
doi: 10.3390/s21144741.

A Dynamic Risk Appraisal Model and Its Application in VTS Based on a Cellular Automata Simulation Prediction

Yongfeng Suo  1 , Zhihong Sun  2 , Christophe Claramunt  3 , Shenhua Yang  1 , Zhibing Zhang  1
Affiliations

A Dynamic Risk Appraisal Model and Its Application in VTS Based on a Cellular Automata Simulation Prediction

Yongfeng Suo et al. Sensors (Basel). .

Abstract

The successful implementation of Vessel Traffic Services (VTS) relies heavily on human decisions. With the increasing development of maritime traffic, there is an urgent need to provide a sound support for dynamic risk appraisals and decision support. This research introduces a cellular automata (CA) simulation-based modelling approach the objective of which is to analyze and evaluate real-time maritime traffic risks in port environments. The first component is the design of a CA model to monitor ships' behavior and maritime fairway traffic. The second component is the refinement of the modelling approach by combining a cloud model with expert knowledge. The third component establishes a risk assessment model based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A typical scenario was experimentally implemented to validate the model's efficiency and operationality.

Keywords: VTS; cellular automata; risk appraisal; traffic prediction; traffic simulation.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest. The funders had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analysis, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, or in the decision to publish the results.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overall method diagram.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Channel simulation.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Ship domain cellular.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Key parameters to consider when overtaking.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The real-time traffic flow risk assessment index system.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Real-time traffic flow risk variation diagram of port waters.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Risk statistical chart of 20 ships in a traffic flow.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Comparison of changes in ship speed, traffic flow risk.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Comparison of traffic flow risk changes with changing visibility.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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