. 2021 Jul 23;11(1):15127.

doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94562-1.

Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

Alexander Tran¹, Jakob Manthey^{2

3

4}, Shannon Lange^{5

6}, Huan Jiang^{5

7}, Mindaugas Štelemėkas^{8

9}, Vaida Liutkutė-Gumarov⁸, Olga Meščeriakova-Veliulienė¹⁰, Janina Petkevičienė^{8

9}, Ričardas Radišauskas^{11

12}, Tadas Telksnys⁸, Jürgen Rehm^{5

2

6

13

7

14

15}

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 2S1, Canada. alexander.tran@camh.ca.
² Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187, Dresden, Germany.
³ Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS), University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany.
⁴ Department of Psychiatry, Medical Faculty, University of Leipzig, Semmelweisstraße 10, 04103, Leipzig, Germany.
⁵ Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 2S1, Canada.
⁶ Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, CAMH, 250 College Street, Toronto, ON, M5T 1R8, Canada.
⁷ Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada.
⁸ Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
⁹ Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹⁰ Department of Health Management, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹¹ Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹² Institute of Cardiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Sukilėlių av. 15, 50162, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹³ Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, 250 College Street, 8th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5T 1R8, Canada.
¹⁴ Institute of Medical Science (IMS), University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 1 King's College Circle, Room 2374, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada.
¹⁵ Department of International Health Projects, Institute for Leadership and Health Management, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Trubetskaya str., 8, b. 2, Moscow, Russian Federation, 119992.

PMID: 34302018
PMCID: PMC8302690
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-94562-1

Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

Alexander Tran et al. Sci Rep. 2021.

. 2021 Jul 23;11(1):15127.

doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94562-1.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 2S1, Canada. alexander.tran@camh.ca.
² Institute of Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187, Dresden, Germany.
³ Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Center for Interdisciplinary Addiction Research (ZIS), University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE), Martinistraße 52, 20246, Hamburg, Germany.
⁴ Department of Psychiatry, Medical Faculty, University of Leipzig, Semmelweisstraße 10, 04103, Leipzig, Germany.
⁵ Institute for Mental Health Policy Research, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH), 33 Russell Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 2S1, Canada.
⁶ Campbell Family Mental Health Research Institute, CAMH, 250 College Street, Toronto, ON, M5T 1R8, Canada.
⁷ Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, 6th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5T 3M7, Canada.
⁸ Health Research Institute, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
⁹ Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹⁰ Department of Health Management, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹¹ Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Tilžės 18, 44307, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹² Institute of Cardiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Sukilėlių av. 15, 50162, Kaunas, Lithuania.
¹³ Department of Psychiatry, University of Toronto, 250 College Street, 8th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5T 1R8, Canada.
¹⁴ Institute of Medical Science (IMS), University of Toronto, Medical Sciences Building, 1 King's College Circle, Room 2374, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A8, Canada.
¹⁵ Department of International Health Projects, Institute for Leadership and Health Management, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Trubetskaya str., 8, b. 2, Moscow, Russian Federation, 119992.

PMID: 34302018
PMCID: PMC8302690
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-94562-1

Abstract

Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for premature mortality. Although alcohol control policies are known to impact all-cause mortality rates, the effect that policies have on specific age groups is an important area of research. This study investigates the effect of alcohol control policies implemented in 2009 and 2017 in Lithuania on all-cause mortality rates. All-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 people) were obtained for 2001-2018 by 10-year age groups (20-29, 30-39, 40-49 years, etc.). All-cause mortality rates, independent of macro-level secular trends (e.g., economic trends) were examined. Following a joinpoint analysis to control for secular trends, an interrupted time series analysis showed that alcohol control policies had a significant effect on all-cause mortality rates (p = .018), with the most significant impact occurring among young adults (20-29 and 30-39 years of age). For these age groups, their mortality rate decreased during the 12 months following policy implementation (following the policy in 2009 for those 20-29 years of age, p = .0026, and following the policy in 2017 for those 30-39 years of age, p = .011). The results indicate that alcohol control policy can impact all-cause mortality rates, above and beyond secular trends, and that the impact is significant among young adults.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

**Figure 1**
Scatterplot trend of mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 people) for all ages 20+. Joinpoint (JP) modeled with and without policy effects. Alcohol control policy implemented in 2009 (increased taxation and reduced availability) and 2017 (increased taxation) shown by the solid blue line and dashed red line, respectively.

**Figure 2**
Scatterplot trend of mortality rate (deaths per 100,000 people) for ages 20–29. Joinpoint (JP) modeled with and without policy effects. Alcohol control policy implemented in 2009 (increased taxation and reduced availability) and 2017 (increased taxation) shown by the solid blue line and dashed red line, respectively.

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Estimating effects of health policy interventions using interrupted time-series analyses: a simulation study.
Jiang H, Feng X, Lange S, Tran A, Manthey J, Rehm J. Jiang H, et al. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022 Aug 31;22(1):235. doi: 10.1186/s12874-022-01716-4. BMC Med Res Methodol. 2022. PMID: 36045338 Free PMC article.
The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis.
Manthey J, Jasilionis D, Jiang H, Meščeriakova O, Petkevičienė J, Radišauskas R, Štelemėkas M, Rehm J. Manthey J, et al. BMC Med. 2023 Jan 16;21(1):22. doi: 10.1186/s12916-022-02721-6. BMC Med. 2023. PMID: 36647069 Free PMC article.

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Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

Affiliations

Alcohol control policies add to secular trends in all-cause mortality rates in young adults

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Conflict of interest statement

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