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. 2021 Sep:28:104604.
doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104604. Epub 2021 Jul 27.

Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi  1 , Gopi Battineni  1 , Francesco Amenta  1   2
Affiliations

Second wave of COVID-19 in Italy: Preliminary estimation of reproduction number and cumulative case projections

Nalini Chintalapudi et al. Results Phys. 2021 Sep.

Abstract

The second wave of a novel coronavirus in Italy has caused 247,369 new cases and 1782 deaths only in October 2020. This significantly alarming infectious disease controlling board to impose again mitigation measures for controlling the epidemic growth. In this paper, we estimate the latest COVID-19 reproduction number (R_0) and project the epidemic size for the future 45 days. The R_0 value has calculated as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.5-4.2) and the cumulative incidences 100,015 (95% CI; 73,201-100,352), and daily incidences might be reached up to 15,012 (95% CI: 8234-16,197) respectively.

Keywords: Epidemic size; Italian population; Projections; Second wave COVID-19.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Average reproduction value (left) and bootstrap sampling approach (right) of maximum likelihood R_0 values.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Cumulative case outcomes (left) and Daily reproduction cases (Right) for R_0 = 2.83.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Cumulative incidence projections for different percentage of R_0 values: 90% (Left), 80% (Middle), and 70% (Right).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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