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. 2021 Aug 2:19:eAO5969.
doi: 10.31744/einstein_journal/2021AO5969. eCollection 2021.

Google Trends correlation and sensitivity for outbreaks of dengue and yellow fever in the state of São Paulo

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Vitor Ulisses Monnaka  1 , Carlos Augusto Cardim de Oliveira  1
Affiliations

Google Trends correlation and sensitivity for outbreaks of dengue and yellow fever in the state of São Paulo

[Article in English, Portuguese]
Vitor Ulisses Monnaka et al. Einstein (Sao Paulo). .

Abstract
in English, Portuguese

Objective: To assess Google Trends accuracy for epidemiological surveillance of dengue and yellow fever, and to compare the incidence of these diseases with the popularity of its terms in the state of São Paulo.

Methods: Retrospective cohort. Google Trends survey results were compared to the actual incidence of diseases, obtained from Centro de Vigilância Epidemiológica "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac", in São Paulo, Brazil, in periods between 2017 and 2019. The correlation was calculated by Pearson's coefficient and cross-correlation function. The accuracy was analyzed by sensitivity and specificity values.

Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between the variables studied for both diseases, Pearson coefficient of 0.91 for dengue and 0.86 for yellow fever. Correlation with up to 4 weeks of anticipation for time series was identified. Sensitivity was 87% and 90%, and specificity 69% and 78% for dengue and yellow fever, respectively.

Conclusion: The incidence of dengue and yellow fever in the State of São Paulo showed a strong correlation with the popularity of its terms measured by Google Trends in weekly periods. Google Trends tool provided early warning, with high sensitivity, for the detection of outbreaks of these diseases.

Objetivo: Avaliar a acurácia do Google Trends para vigilância epidemiológica de dengue e febre amarela e comparar a incidência dessas doenças com a popularidade de seus termos no estado de São Paulo.

Métodos: Coorte retrospectiva. Os resultados da pesquisa Google Trends foram comparados com a incidência real de doenças, obtida do Centro de Vigilância Epidemiológica “Prof. Alexandre Vranjac”, do estado de São Paulo, nos períodos entre 2017 e 2019. A correlação foi calculada pelo coeficiente de Pearson e pela função de correlação cruzada. A acurácia foi analisada por valores de sensibilidade e especificidade.

Resultados: Houve correlação estatisticamente significante entre as variáveis estudadas para ambas as doenças, com coeficiente de Pearson de 0,91 para dengue e 0,86 para febre amarela. Foi identificada correlação com até 4 semanas de antecipação para séries temporais. A sensibilidade foi de 87% e 90% e a especificidade de 69% e 78% para dengue e febre amarela, respectivamente.

Conclusão: A incidência de dengue e febre amarela no estado de São Paulo apresentou forte correlação com a popularidade de seus termos medidos pelo Google Trends em períodos semanais. A ferramenta Google Trends forneceu alerta precoce, com alta sensibilidade, para a detecção de surtos dessas doenças.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: none.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Cases and trends of dengue per epidemiological week
Figure 2
Figure 2. Cases and trends of yellow fever per epidemiological week
Figure 3
Figure 3. Scatter plot of dengue. Statistics represent Pearson’s correlation test
Figure 4
Figure 4. Scatter plot of yellow fever. Statistics represent Pearson’s correlation test
Figura 1
Figura 1. Casos e trends para dengue, por semana epidemiológica
Figura 2
Figura 2. Casos e trends para febre amarela, por semana epidemiológica
Figura 3
Figura 3. Gráfico de dispersão para dengue. As estatísticas representam o teste de correlação de Pearson
Figura 4
Figura 4. Gráfico de dispersão para febre amarela. As estatísticas representam o teste de correlação de Pearson
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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