Predictors of recovery rate among undernourished HIV-positive adults treated with ready-to-use therapeutic food at Debre Markos Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: A retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Nutritional support is becoming more widely acknowledged as a crucial component of the key package of care for HIV/AIDS patients. This nutritional support is exceptionally important for patients in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, where HIV/AIDS is very prevalent. However, there is a lack of evidence on the recovery rate and predictors at the study site and at large in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study will give some insight into the recovery rate and its predictors among under-nourished HIV-positive adults treated with Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) attending at Debre Markos referral hospital. Moreover, the findings of this study will be used by both governmental and non-governmental organizations to allocate more resources to mitigate the nutritional problems for people living with HIV.

Methods: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 453 under-nourished HIV positive adults treated with RUTF at Debre Markos referral Hospital from the 1st of July, 2015 to the 31st of December, 2017. The study participants were selected using a simple random sampling technique. Data were extracted from patient charts using a standardized data extraction checklist. Data were entered into Epi-Data Version 4.2 and analyzed using Stata Version 14. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to estimate the time to recovery. Log-rank test was used to compare the recovery time between different baseline categorical variables. The bivariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard regression models were fitted for potential predictors of recovery time. Adjusted hazard Ratios (AHRs) with 95% CIs were used to measure the strength of association and test statistical significance.

Results: A total of 453 undernourished HIV-positive adults were included in the final analysis. About 201, 44.4% (95%CI: 38.9, 49.0%) patients participating in the RUTF program were recovered based on predetermined exit criteria with incidence of 10.65 (95% CI: 9.28, 12.23) per 100 person-month observations. Being moderately undernourished (AHR: 11.0, 95% CI: 5.3, 23.1), WHO clinical stage (I or II) (AHR:1.8, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.6), and working functional status at baseline (AHR = 2.34, 95%CI: 1.01,5.45) were predictors of recovery time.

Conclusion: This study concluded that the overall nutritional recovery rate was below the acceptable minimum requirement which at least 75% of patients should recovered. Mild to moderate undernutrition at baseline, WHO clinical stage I or II at enrolment, and working functional status were found to be predictors of recovery time in HIV/AIDS patients treated with the RUTF. As a result, special attention should be paid to severely malnourished patients, WHO clinical stages III or higher, and patients who are bedridden or ambulatory during treatment.

Fig 1. The overall Kaplan-Meier recovery curve with 95% confidence interval of under nourished HIV positive adults treated with RUTF at Debre Markos Referral Hospital from July 1^st, 2015 –December 31^st, 2017.

Fig 2. The estimated Kaplan-Meier recovery curves of under nourished HIV positive adults treated with RUTF by baseline nutritional status at Debre Markos Referral Hospital from July of 1^st, 2015 to December of 31^st, 2017.

Fig 3. The estimated Kaplan-Meier recovery of under nourished HIV positive adults treated with RUTF by WHO clinical stages at Debre Markos Referral Hospital from July of 1^st, 2015 –December of 31^st, 2017.