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Comment
. 2021 Aug 10;118(32):e2110032118.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2110032118.

Centenarians may hold a key to continued rise of human longevity

Johan Bredberg  1 , Anders Bredberg  2   3
Affiliations
Comment

Centenarians may hold a key to continued rise of human longevity

Johan Bredberg et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
A mathematical model with normally distributed death risk growth factor produces a curve similar to real-life data on women in Sweden accessed from the Human Mortality Database (https://www.mortality.org). The death risk denotes the risk of dying during the coming year. Among the Swedish women, the death risk increases each year from 0.021 at age 70 y by a factor of about 1.107 until the yearly growth factor starts to decrease at an age of about 95 y to approach 1 at 110 y and apparently reaches a plateau with death risk about 0.6 (black dots). In the model population (green line), death risk is taken to be 0.021 at age 70 y and the death risk growth factor is normally distributed with mean of 1.107 and SD of 0.0091. The red line illustrates the curve pattern of a population with all individuals having the same death risk growth factor.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
Gradual selection over time of slowly aging individuals. Three arbitrarily derived subpopulations of the normally distributed model are shown: 1) 0.2% of the total population have the lowest death rate growth factor (blue line), 2) 4.7% the next-lowest level (yellow line), and 3), the remaining 95% comprise all remaining individuals with higher death risk growth factor (gray line). The 95% majority becomes the minority at 106 y, and the most slowly aging 0.2% minority group will come to dominate at about 112 y.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

Comment on

  • Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity.
    Vaupel JW, Villavicencio F, Bergeron-Boucher MP. Vaupel JW, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Mar 2;118(9):e2019536118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2019536118. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021. PMID: 33571137 Free PMC article.

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