Natural History of Untreated Retinoblastoma

Abstract

Treatment abandonment is a leading cause of death in children with retinoblastoma worldwide. We studied children who abandoned treatment upfront at diagnosis to delineate the natural history of untreated retinoblastoma. Studied were children who received no treatment, diagnosed between 2007 and 2017 at 29 Chinese centers. Data were retrospectively collected from medical chart reviews and interviews with each patient's family. During the study period, 44 children received no treatment after diagnosis of retinoblastoma. Clinical or radiologic evidence of orbital extension was available for 25 children, and radiologic evidence of systemic metastasis was available for 12 children. Median times from diagnosis of intraocular tumor to orbital disease was 13.7 months, orbital disease to metastasis was 2.6 months, and metastasis to death was 2.0 months. Children with brain metastasis had shorter survival than those with metastasis to other sites (median 1.0 vs. 3.1 months; p = 0.015). Overall, 36% of patients died within 12 months of diagnosis, 77% within 24 months, 95% within 36 months and 100% within 48 months. While multiple factors influence refusal of treatment, insights into the natural history of retinoblastoma derived from real-world evidence can inform clinicians and parents that retinoblastoma is life-threatening and encourage urgent treatment at diagnosis.

Keywords: death; mortality; natural history; prognosis; retinoblastoma; treatment abandonment.

Figure 1

Proportion of patients who abandoned treatment by year of diagnosis from 2007 to 2017.

Figure 2

Kaplan-Meier curves of patients who received no treatment: (A) 25 patients with known dates of orbital extension, (B) 12 patients with known dates of systemic metastasis.

Figure 3

Kaplan-Meier curve of disease-specific survival of 44 patients who received no treatment.